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Hawthorn v West Coast
Eagles are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS at Optus Stadium (Average result = win by 37 points)
Eagles are 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS away from Optus (Average result = loss by 41 points)
I have the Eagles as a 20-point better team than the Hawks (on a neutral field), so the line of -10.5 that is being offered is just about right. Whether the Eagles can fix their homesickness is the ultimate gamble. One I’m not willing to wager on. Massive stay away, here.
-- Player Prop –
Hawthorn concedes the 2nd most 100+ DT scores (4.1 per game)
Hawthorn concede the 3rd most DT points to centres, and the 2nd most to top-3 centres.
Big scores against Hawthorn in the last 3 weeks: Z Jones 151, H Clark 13, S Ross 108, B Crouch 105, B Keays 156, Laird 109, Seedsman 103, Oliver 121, Petracca 102.
You could’ve honestly raffled which players will go bananas for the Eagles in this game, as the 4 main midfielders (Redden, Kelly, Sheed, and Gaff) are all very similar players.
But I’ve decided someone that has form against the Hawks…
Andrew Gaff’s last 4 games against Hawthorn:
33 touches and 90 DT (41.25 and 112.5 after scaling in 2020)
37 touches and 129 DT
34 touches and 119 DT
35 touches and 154 DT
This kind of form is hard to ignore.
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Andrew Gaff Over 105.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)
Western Bulldogs v Carlton
Carlton are 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS against the Bulldogs since Teague took over the Blues
Carlton are 1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS as underdogs at Marvel Stadium under David Teague
All games decided by 1-24 points
No team has lost more games by 1-39 than Carlton has since David Teague took over from Carlton
18 of 35 games
Model says: Western Bulldogs by 21, so no value on the line here.
-- Player Prop –
Western Bulldogs concede the 2nd most DT points to backmen, and top-3 backs
Big games from backs the Dogs of late:
Houli 124, Broad 110, Short 105, Ash 146, Cumming 102, Markov 100, Andrews 103.
I’ve got my eye on Sam Docherty who has a median score of 96 points this year, so a very small bump against a team that allows quite a bit of pill across half back should see this sail over.
- 1.5 Units – Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.25 (Sportsbet)
- 1 Unit – Sam Docherty Over 96.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)
Brisbane v Fremantle Player Prop
Fremantle concede the 4th most points to backmen in 2021
My first reaction was Daniel Rich, but having a look at opposition backmen scores vs the Dockers, the highest scoring backmen doesn’t score *that* well in comparison. Only 3 backmen have scored 100+ against Freo. Even though Daniel Rich was the first player I thought of, I think we have better opportunities elsewhere.
Grant Birchall has been in the Lions top 3 scores for backs in all 7 games. Top back once, 2nd back 3 times, and 3rd back 3 times.
Let’s say on average he’s the 2nd highest scoring Brisbane back.
The 2nd highest back scores 87.14 points against Fremantle this season
Birchall’s median score is 77 this year, so a slight bump sees this over.
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Grant Birchall Over 78.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)
Odds are correct as of 10:35 - Sunday 9th of May 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.