AFL Round 8 - Sunday

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Hawthorn v West Coast

  • Eagles are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS at Optus Stadium (Average result = win by 37 points)

  • Eagles are 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS away from Optus (Average result = loss by 41 points)

  • I have the Eagles as a 20-point better team than the Hawks (on a neutral field), so the line of -10.5 that is being offered is just about right. Whether the Eagles can fix their homesickness is the ultimate gamble. One I’m not willing to wager on. Massive stay away, here.

-- Player Prop –

  • Hawthorn concedes the 2nd most 100+ DT scores (4.1 per game)

  • Hawthorn concede the 3rd most DT points to centres, and the 2nd most to top-3 centres.

  • Big scores against Hawthorn in the last 3 weeks: Z Jones 151, H Clark 13, S Ross 108, B Crouch 105, B Keays 156, Laird 109, Seedsman 103, Oliver 121, Petracca 102.

  • You could’ve honestly raffled which players will go bananas for the Eagles in this game, as the 4 main midfielders (Redden, Kelly, Sheed, and Gaff) are all very similar players.

  • But I’ve decided someone that has form against the Hawks…

  • Andrew Gaff’s last 4 games against Hawthorn:

  • 33 touches and 90 DT (41.25 and 112.5 after scaling in 2020)

  • 37 touches and 129 DT

  • 34 touches and 119 DT

  • 35 touches and 154 DT

  • This kind of form is hard to ignore.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Andrew Gaff Over 105.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

Western Bulldogs v Carlton

  • Carlton are 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS against the Bulldogs since Teague took over the Blues

  • Carlton are 1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS as underdogs at Marvel Stadium under David Teague

  • All games decided by 1-24 points

  • No team has lost more games by 1-39 than Carlton has since David Teague took over from Carlton

  • 18 of 35 games

  • Model says: Western Bulldogs by 21, so no value on the line here.

-- Player Prop –

  • Western Bulldogs concede the 2nd most DT points to backmen, and top-3 backs

  • Big games from backs the Dogs of late:

  • Houli 124, Broad 110, Short 105, Ash 146, Cumming 102, Markov 100, Andrews 103.

  • I’ve got my eye on Sam Docherty who has a median score of 96 points this year, so a very small bump against a team that allows quite a bit of pill across half back should see this sail over.

Recommended Bet:

- 1.5 Units – Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.25 (Sportsbet)

- 1 Unit – Sam Docherty Over 96.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

Brisbane v Fremantle Player Prop

  • Fremantle concede the 4th most points to backmen in 2021

  • My first reaction was Daniel Rich, but having a look at opposition backmen scores vs the Dockers, the highest scoring backmen doesn’t score *that* well in comparison. Only 3 backmen have scored 100+ against Freo. Even though Daniel Rich was the first player I thought of, I think we have better opportunities elsewhere.

  • Grant Birchall has been in the Lions top 3 scores for backs in all 7 games. Top back once, 2nd back 3 times, and 3rd back 3 times.

  • Let’s say on average he’s the 2nd highest scoring Brisbane back.

  • The 2nd highest back scores 87.14 points against Fremantle this season

  • Birchall’s median score is 77 this year, so a slight bump sees this over.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Grant Birchall Over 78.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

Odds are correct as of 10:35 - Sunday 9th of May 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.