AFL Round 8 - Saturday

Gold Coast v St Kilda

  • It’s not too often that Gold Coast are favourites, but they are 6-1-2 SU, 5-4 ATS when they are under Stuart Dew

  • 5-1-1 SU, 4-3 ATS at Metricon

  • Cover by an average of 12.5 points

  • Dew and Ratten have only coached against each other once. Saints won 78-74 in 2020

  • It doesn’t mean much, but the last 4 times these two teams have played against eachother, the game has been decided by less than a goal

  • Model says: Suns by 10

-- Player Props –

  • This game has a lot of potential in terms of selecting player props, and I’ll tell you why:

  • Games involving the Suns have the 2nd most totals disposals while Saints games have the 3rd highest.

  • St Kilda concede 4.1 scores of 100+ fantasy points per game (tied-2nd most), while the Suns concede 3.4 (tied 5th most)

  • Fast deck, sun out in the Gold Coast. You could see some big scores here today.

  • St Kilda concede the 2nd most fantasy points to midfielders while the Suns concede the 6th most.

  • Looking at the scores against for both teams: it looks like the players who are in the coalface seem to pig out.

  • Big scores of players who fit this mould vs St Kilda: Mitchell 128, Worpel 124, Shiels 119, Wines 129, Houston 127, Merrett 121, Parish 117, Oliver 130, Petracca 124, Taranto 103.

  • Going by this, I want the Suns players who attends the most centre bounce attendance, averages the most disposals, and 2nd most in contested possessions and tackles. Median score = 130 Fantasy Points

  • Big scores of players who fit this mould vs Gold Coast: J P Kennedy 146, Mills 142, Dunkley 151, Bontempelli 133, Macrae 115, E Curnow 122, Sloane 115, Laird 106, J Anderson 127, Sheed 138, T Kelly 111.

  • Similarly to the Suns, give me the player who’s around the footy the most, and that’s Jack Steele. Averages the most disposals, contested possessions, and tackles for the Saints. Median score = 109

  • This upcoming pick is an opportunists’ pick, more than anything else. Brad Hill moved from the wing to the half back flank last week. How effective this is in the real world is up for debate, but what it does do is sky-rocket his fantasy value in my opinion. Hill’s (usually) as fantastic user of the footy, so it makes sense playing him on the back flank distributing the ball around. I reckon we can catch the bookies napping with this one, as I wouldn’t be surprised if we look at Hill’s o/u being in the 90, or high 80s at the very least in a few weeks.

  • Hill had 27 touches and 101 fantasy points last week.

  • For those DFS players, I’d have no problem stacking a bunch of players from this game.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Suns -1.5 @ $1.90 (Pointsbet)

- 1.25 Units – Jack Steele Over 104.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

- 1.25 Units – Touk Miller Over 110.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.85 (Ladbrokes)

- 2 Units – Brad Hill Over 74.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

GWS v Essendon

- Don’t really love anything in this game. Lean on Giants 1-39.

North Melbourne v Collingwood

  • Not too much to go off here with David Noble being in his first year as Roos’ coach

  • The three biggest losses of North Melbourne’s season were all in the first 3 rounds.

  • Although they’re 0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS in the last 4 games, they have been “okay” considering where they are on the ladder.

  • Lead Adelaide at 3QT

  • Lost to Geelong at GMHBA by 30 points as 56.5 point underdogs

  • Lost by 51 at Freo – kicking 6.12 didn’t help

  • And lead Melbourne for most of the game, in an eventual 30 point loss

  • This is more of a model play than anything else. I only have Collingwood as 4 point favourites

-- Player Prop –

  • Backmen vs Collingwood. I’m sounding like s scratched record here, but we’re going back to the seemingly-always-full well.

  • Collingwood *still* concede the (checks notes…) most points to backmen in 2021.

  • I was hoping for a number a lot lower than that is being offered on Aaron Hall. On paper, Aaron Hall averages 82.2 fantasy points. But when you go through his season game by game, if you take away the game in which he was the sub, and the game in which he was subbed out due to concussion, Hall has scored 99, 123, and 143 points. I guess bookies aren’t always slow on these kinda things… It’s still a big, big play for us.

  • Playing off a half back, don’t be surprised if Hall and Jack Ziebell rack up 65+ touches between them just strolling across half back.

Recommended Bets:

- 1.25 Units – North Melbourne +22.5 @ $1.90 (Topsport)

- 1.75 Units – Aaron Hall Over 100.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)

Melbourne v Sydney

  • Dating back to last season, Melbourne are 9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games

  • 8 wins by 1-39

  • Since 2019, Sydney are 9-18 SU, 17-10 ATS away from the SCG

  • 15 losses by 1-39

  • Since 2019, Sydney are 4-5 SU, 8-1 ATS as underdogs of 20+ points

  • Not a lot of players still around, but Longmire is a long constant. Since 2015, Sydney are 7-1 SU, 8-0 ATS as underdogs at the MCG

  • One of our favourite situational trends is in play here: Under is 52-24 in night games played at the MCG (excluding Round 1 games) since 2015

  • Average +/- of O/U is -9.99 points

  • Under is 8-2 in Melbourne games in this situation under Simon Goodwin

  • Average +/- of O/U is -11.8

  • Really had a hard time tossing up between Melbourne 1-39 and Sydney + points. I’ve decided to play both at a stake while would mean as long as Melbourne don’t win by 40+, the worst we can do is practically break even. If Melbourne do win by 40+, we’ll cop the loss just like any other. The middle is the obvious ideal scenario. What we’re saying is, we believe Melbourne winning but not covering, is more probably than them winning by 40+. We’ll see.

  • Model says Melbourne by 15.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Sydney +22.5 @ $1.90 (Topsport)

- 0.9 Units – Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.02 (Ladbrokes)

- 1 Unit – Under 154.5 @ $1.91 (bet365)

Port Adelaide v Adelaide

  • When it’s the local derby, whether it be the Showdown, WA Derby, Q-Clash, or Battle of the Bridge, I throw out all home ground stats as usually they’re play against an interstate side. These games are unique in themselves and can’t be compared to others.

  • For those that follow my stuff, you’ll know that Under is a whopping 32-6 in Port Adelaide night games at Adelaide Oval… but here’s the catch:

  • It’s 2-2 in showdowns. Meh.

  • Hard to dig up trends in this one as this is only Matthew Nicks’ 2nd season at the Crows.

  • Port Adelaide won 110-35 in 2020

  • Model says: Port Adelaide by 31, so we think the market’s pretty bang on.

Odds are correct as of 11:15 - Saturday 8th of May 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.