Melbourne v North Melbourne
Dating back to last season, Melbourne are 8-0 SU, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games
Cover by an average of 20.13 points
Opponent team total over/under is 0-6 in 2021
Average +/- of O/U is = -16.16 points
Not going to look at head to head, or venue trends due to David Noble being in his first year as North Melbourne coach
North are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS this season
Team Total Over/Under is 0-6
Average of +/- of O/U is -16.75 points
Underdog team total is O/U is 21-40-1 in games where the line is 50+ points
-Model says: Melbourne by 54
Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – North Melbourne Under 53.5 Team Points @ $1.87 (TAB)
Essendon v Carlton
It doesn’t seem to matter which players or coaches are involved, when these two teams play, it’s almost always close.
10 of the last 12 games between these two sides have been decided by 24 points or less
8 of the 12 decided by 15 points or less
I have the market at Carlton -0.5
24 of the 33 games that David Teague has coached has been decided by 24 points or less
Leads the league in this time
Recommended Bet: 3 Unit – Either Team by Under 24.5 @ $1.80 (Ladbrokes)
West Coast v Fremantle
Not much of a Simpson vs Longmuire history here, so avoiding head to head trends
But… as an FYI, WCE are 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS against Freo
For those who have followed this season will know that I have been very pro-Fremantle . They’re 3-3 with a % of 109. But here’s the problem. I have them with the EASIEST schedule in the league so far. Melbourne (obviously tough), GWS, Carlton, Hawthorn, Adelaide, North Melbourne. That’s 5 kind-of-bottom sides. Call me crazy, but I have Eagles -16 points in this game.
-- Player Prop –
Freo concede the 2nd most DT points to backs this season, as they allow opposition to just chip the ball around without gaining too much territory.
I’m looking at one man and one man only… Alex Witherden. Could make a case for Liam Duggan and Brad Sheppard also, but with Witherden taking kick-ins, and being the deepest back in attack, I think he’ll benefit from Freo’s game style the most.
- 1.5 Units – West Coast -1.5 @ $1.97 (Bet365)
- 1.5 Units – Alex WItherden Over 96.5 DT @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)
Odds are correct as of 13:20 - Sunday 2nd of May 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.