AFL Round 7 - Sunday

Melbourne v North Melbourne

  • Dating back to last season, Melbourne are 8-0 SU, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games

  • Cover by an average of 20.13 points

  • Opponent team total over/under is 0-6 in 2021

  • Average +/- of O/U is = -16.16 points

  • Not going to look at head to head, or venue trends due to David Noble being in his first year as North Melbourne coach

  • North are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS this season

  • Team Total Over/Under is 0-6

  • Average of +/- of O/U is -16.75 points

  • Underdog team total is O/U is 21-40-1 in games where the line is 50+ points

  • -Model says: Melbourne by 54

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – North Melbourne Under 53.5 Team Points @ $1.87 (TAB)

Essendon v Carlton

  • It doesn’t seem to matter which players or coaches are involved, when these two teams play, it’s almost always close.

  • 10 of the last 12 games between these two sides have been decided by 24 points or less

  • 8 of the 12 decided by 15 points or less

  • I have the market at Carlton -0.5

  • 24 of the 33 games that David Teague has coached has been decided by 24 points or less

  • Leads the league in this time

Recommended Bet: 3 Unit – Either Team by Under 24.5 @ $1.80 (Ladbrokes)

West Coast v Fremantle

  • Not much of a Simpson vs Longmuire history here, so avoiding head to head trends

  • But… as an FYI, WCE are 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS against Freo

  • For those who have followed this season will know that I have been very pro-Fremantle . They’re 3-3 with a % of 109. But here’s the problem. I have them with the EASIEST schedule in the league so far. Melbourne (obviously tough), GWS, Carlton, Hawthorn, Adelaide, North Melbourne. That’s 5 kind-of-bottom sides. Call me crazy, but I have Eagles -16 points in this game.

-- Player Prop –

  • Freo concede the 2nd most DT points to backs this season, as they allow opposition to just chip the ball around without gaining too much territory.

  • I’m looking at one man and one man only… Alex Witherden. Could make a case for Liam Duggan and Brad Sheppard also, but with Witherden taking kick-ins, and being the deepest back in attack, I think he’ll benefit from Freo’s game style the most.

Recommended Bets:

- 1.5 Units – West Coast -1.5 @ $1.97 (Bet365)

- 1.5 Units – Alex WItherden Over 96.5 DT @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)

Odds are correct as of 13:20 - Sunday 2nd of May 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.