AFL Round 7 - Saturday

Collingwood v Gold Coast

  • Since Stuart Dew took over from Gold Coast, they are 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS against Collingwood

  • Small sample size, but the Suns are 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS at the MCG under Dew

  • Losses of 96 and 69

  • Collingwood are 9-7 SU, 6-10 as favourites since 2020

  • Collingwood are 5-8-1 SU, 5-9 ATS against interstate sides at the MCG since 2018

  • Don’t love this game, but the trends (kind of), and my model really likes the Suns here, so I’m gonna play it.

-- Player Prop –

  • *sigh* Here we go again…

  • Take your pick here: Collingwood concede the most fantasy points to BOTH, centres and backs…

  • No surprises here after that fact: Collingwood concede the most uncontested marks and uncontested possessions in the league. I feel like if Collingwood keep losing, this might change. But until we see it, I’ll keep playing it.

  • So, who to target?

  • Uncontested marks? Ellis 9 per game, Lukosius 7.33, Bowes 7

  • Highest uncontested possession rate? Ellis 79.1%, Bowes 71.4% (plus kick ins), Lukosius 73.7%.

  • Median scores in 2021: Bowes 96.5, Ellis 111, Lukosius 86

  • Could make a case to back all three of these guys… and you know what, I just might…

  • I reckon we may go close in a SGM for this game too…

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Gold Coast +10.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)

- 1 Unit – Brandon Ellis Over 99.5 DT @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)

- 1 Unit – Jack Bowes Over 95.5 DT @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)

- 1 Unit – Jack Lukosius Over 82.5 DT @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)

Adelaide v GWS

Nothing to see here. The market’s right in terms of the line, I’ve got no feel for the total, and neither team is leaky nor stingy in terms of player props. Steering clear of this one.

St Kilda v Hawthorn

  • I have St Kilda 10 point favourites in this game, market has it -10.5, so obviously not going to play it.

  • But, when a team gets injuries, betting opportunities arise.

  • With O’Meara (70% Centre Bounce Attendance rate – 1st for mids at Hawthorn), and Wingard (58% - 3rd) are out due to whatever reasons, someone has to take their spots. Looking at Hawthorn ins, one is Jack Gunston, and the other the tall debutant Emerson Jeka. Neither player would fill the role of the two missing players. This means the players who will make up the CBA numbers must come from within.

  • Tom Mitchell, well he already has the 2nd most with 69%, so we can leave him alone (although, if he doesn’t get tagged, he could go ham today), we’ve got Worpel who has ranged between 40-50% CBA mark all season, even before Wingard came back from his pre-season injury. We may see a small bump there but nothing drastic.

  • But there’s one player, maybe two, who I will be very certain will receive a noticeable bump, and that’s the old trusty Liam Shiels. In Round 1 (without Wingard), Shiels attended 70% of centre bounces. This number dipped to 38% in round 2 (still without Wingard) but this dip would mainly be related to Burgoyne attending 76% while he tagged Dusty. After Wingard returned in Round 3, Shiels never saw 35%+ again… until now.

  • I think Mitchell, Worpel, Shiels will be the 3 main men for Hawthorn in the middle today, with a sprinkle of Cousins, Phillips and Breust.

  • Clarko may have something up his sleeve, I mean, would you be surprised? But I’m betting that’s the trio he goes with today, and we should see an overall bump on the players mentioned.

  • Liam Shiels median this year is 80.5, and considering St Kilda concede the third most points to centres this season, I’d expect an additional boost to the one I think he’ll get due to midfield opportunities.

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Liam Shiels Over 84.5 DT Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

Sydney v Geelong

  • Since 2018, Sydney are 1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS against Geelong

  • Typically tight games, with the average absolute margin being 16.8 points, and the biggest margin being 27 points

  • 2020 has thrown a lot of interstate/home ground trends out the window, as 1) they’re watered down due to the fact that most games were played interstate, and 2) Sydney largely have a different side to the year before. So there’s not going to be much from a trends stand-point here.

-- Player Prop –

  • Now this is intriguing…

  • These two teams are both ranked in the bottom 3 (or top, depending which way you look at it, but they don’t concede many is what I’m getting at) in conceding:

  • Disposals

  • Uncontested marks

  • Uncontested possessions

  • And DT points

  • If you’re making a same game multi, make sure you don’t go crazy with your 20+, 25+ etc markets. This ain’t the game for it.

  • On Sydney’s side, I want to fade Lloyd, Dawson, Florent, and maybe Mills. As much as I think they’ll struggle around the ground, I don’t like fading players who take kick ins. So put a line through Lloyd and Dawson. Mills, I do expect to drop but he can find his own footy.

  • Florent’s median this season is 68, making this play VERY, VERY attractive.

  • On the Geelong side, I immediate looked at Isaac Smith, but with his median being 98 and his market number being 87.5, I’ll look elsewhere.

  • The obvious answer is Tom Stewart. Yes, I know, I know, I said I don’t like to lay players who takes kick ins. But Stewart averages 3 (play-on) kick-ins a game this season. Lloyd averages 6.5, Dawson 4.67. Tom Stewart’s median score is 100 this season, so a small drop (which I expect) should see this cash.

Recommended Bets:

- 1.25 Units – Either Team by Under 24.5 @ $1.82 (Ladbrokes)

- 2 Units – Oliver Florent Under 76.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

- 1.25 Units – Tom Stewart Under 98.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

Brisbane v Port Adelaide

Even though I think this game will be a cracker, I hate betting in wet weather footy, so i'm steering well clear from this game.

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The Odds are correct as of 13:10 - Saturday 1st of May 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.