AFL Round 6 - Saturday

Geelong vs West Coast Player Prop

  • I’m starting to sound like a bit of a broken record here, but I’ll keep playing it until the value’s gone

  • Geelong concede the least disposals, uncontested disposals, and the 2nd least uncontested possessions

  • This spells bad trouble for the Eagles as they average the most uncontested marks in the league, the 4th most total uncontested possessions, and have the 3rd highest uncontested vs contested possession rate in the league (64%).

  • Might be a reason why Geelong are 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS against the Eagles since 2019 – match up well

  • And 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS at GMHBA since 2014 (Simpson’s first year). Average winning margin = 59 points

  • Expect to see a drop in numbers for:

  • Jack Redden (most uncontested possessions for the Eagles in 2021)

  • Liam Duggan (highest uncontested possession rate for Eagles Mids – 71.78%)

  • Andrew Gaff (2nd highest uncontested possession rate for Eagles Mids – 69.29%)

  • Just like in the past, I’m going to zero in on wingers vs the Cats, so my focus is well and truly on Andrew Gaff, especially at the Cattery where there’s not much room for wingers.

  • Gaff’s last game against Geelong: 14 touches and 51 DT in 2020 – 17.5 & 63.75 after scaling.

  • The fact that Gaff went for 38 and 31 points last week, makes me think we should get a pretty good number too.

  • Gaff's average in 2021 is 100.2, with a median of 86

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Andrew Gaff Under 105.5 DT @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

Gold Coast v Sydney Player Prop

  • Sydney concedes the 2nd least disposals, uncontested possessions, the least uncontested marks, and concede the least dream team points to backs, and it’s not even close.

  • Scores against Sydney vs average for half-backs in 2021:

  • D Rich 95 (101 average), G Birchall 49 (75)

  • B Smith 49 (83), T Doedee 73 (71)

  • J Short 90 (91), L Baker 70 (60)

  • D Heppell 86 (85), N Hind 74 (85)

  • L Ash 69 (83), I Cumming 65 (82) N Haynes 51 (62)

  • Really tossing up between Jack Bowes and Jack Lukosius, but I’m opting for the latter for two reasons: his market numbers is closer to his season average than what Bowes’ is, and Bowes takes kick ins which adds another variable to consider.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Jack Lukosius Under 83.5 DT @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

-- Part 2 --

Carlton v Brisbane

  • Small sample size, but Carlton are 1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS as underdogs at Marvel Stadium under David Teague

  • Cover by an average of 4.9 points

  • All games have been decided by 1-24

  • This is just the third time that Brisbane have been favourites away from QLD under Chris Fagan

  • 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS in these games

  • Carlton are 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS against Brisbane under David Teague

  • Cover by an average of 18 points

  • Model says: Lions should be favourites of 1.5 points

Player Prop:

  • When watching Carlton, one thing stands out to me more than most, and I don’t think the public have caught on – or if they have, not enough. And that is Lachie Plowman, and just how bad he is. He gets a game week in, week out without a second thought, but defensively, he is awful.

  • The big forwards are usually lined up on by Jacob Weitering and Liam Jones, usually leaving either the best small forward, or the third tall to Plowman. Jones and Weitering will have their hands full with Daniher and Hipwood. Plowman has played on Charlie Cameron in the past, but when you look at Carlton’s other backmen – Docherty, Saad, and Petrevski-Seton – who are all under 190cm, that only leaves Plowman to play on Daniel McStay. Now that we’ve identified the matchup, let’s have a look and see how opponents third tall / small forwards have gone (practically anyone who Jones and Weitering don’t match up on) this year:

  • J Aarts 2.0, Castagna 2.2, Rioli 2.1

  • De Goey 4.3 (most for team goals), J Elliott 2.0 (before getting injured before HT)

  • M Walters 2.0 (tied most for team goals)

  • Alex Sexton 2.0 (most for team goals)

  • Mitch Georgiades 3.0, Robbie Gray 3.0 (both most for team goals).

  • Expect a day out for at least one of McStay / Cameron.

  • I’m choosing McStay over Cameron for two reasons: Plowman is the matchup I expect, and he’s a lot longer in price than Cameron.

  • At price, I’m having a dip!

Recommended Bets:

- 1.5 Unit – Carlton +7.5 @ $1.90 (Pointsbet – posted on Friday afternoon)

- 1 Unit – Daniel McStay 2+ Goals @ $2.75 (Topsport/Sportsbet)

- 0.5 Units – 3+ Goals @ $7 (Sportsbet)

- 0.15 Units – 4+ Goals @ $21 (Sportsbet)

- 0.1 Units – 5+ Goals @ $76 (Sportsbet)

Melbourne v Richmond – Player Prop

  • Richmond concede the 4th most uncontested possessions, and the 2nd most uncontested marks in the league

  • With this, I’m looking squarely at two Melbourne players – Ed Langdon (72.6% uncontested) and Christian Salem (70.5%)

  • If Steven May wasn’t named, I was going to look more towards Salem as kick-ins won’t be taken away. With May being name, I may peg it back a little and just back them both for equal stake.

  • Late note: With the weather looking like it’s threatening with some rain, this makes me want to think twice before unloading on uncontested players. Think it’s a stay away for now.

And no, I have nothing on the Fremantle vs North Melbourne game.

Odds are correct as of 14:55 – Saturday 24th April 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.