The Trend BettorAFL Round 5 - Sunday
Adelaide v Fremantle Player Prop
Fremantle concede the 3nd most uncontested possessions in the league, and the 4th most uncontested marks in the league
Sholl averages the most uncontested marks for the Crows (6.5/game)
Sholl averages the 2nd most uncontested possessions for the Crows (16)
Fremantle have given up some big scores to “uncontested” midfielders in 2021:
S May 92, E Langdon 95, J Lever 87, Harmes 86 (not normally uncontested-type player, but played on the wing round 1)
I Cumming 91, J Kelly 90
L Fogarty 120, M Gibbons 103, J Newnes 95, L Jones 88
C Jiath 102, J Impey 97, M Hartley 95, H Morrison 85
Fremantle are happy to give up uncontested possessions (4th worst +/- uncontested possessions), and I think Sholl will reap the benefits here.
No surprises, but I’d happily pivot to Seedsman/Brodie Smith also
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Lachie Sholl Over 83.5 Fantasy Points @ 1.88 (Pointsbet)
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Melbourne are 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games, dating back to last season
All wins have been by 1-39
Melbourne are 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS against Hawthorn since 2018
Since 2020, Hawthorn are 0-6 SU, 4-2 ATS when underdogs of 15+ points
All games have resulted in a 1-39 loss
Player Prop:
Although this doesn’t look like as good of a matchup as it did last year (when Melbourne conceded the 2nd most uncontested possessions per game), I think they’ve limited these possessions more to the back half
Melbourne have conceded:
Luke Ryan 83 DT, H Young 71
Dougal Howard 111 DT, C Wilkie 104
Lachie Ash 91, Isaac Cumming 91, Sam Taylor 79
Tom Stewart 99, Tom Atkins 88
Jiath has been super consistent since Will Day got injured (Round 2)
Scoring 86, 100, and 102
Note: I actually have a lot of “leans” in this game in terms of player props… I reckon this could make for a nice SGM 👀
Recommended Bets:
1 Unit – Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)
1 Unit - Changkuoth Jiath Over 84.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)
Geelong v North Melbourne
There have been 159 games where a team is 50+ point underdogs since 2011, under dogs are 7-152 SU, 84-75 ATS in these games
Team total UNDER is 93-65-1
In their last 9 games, North Melbourne Team Total Under is 9-0
Average +/- of TT O/U is = - 17.22
Geelong have been 30+ point favourites at GMHBA Stadium 17-1 SU, 11-7 ATS in these games
Opposition Team Total Under is 12-6 in these games
Player Prop:
Shaun Atley median DT Score this season is 76.5, which is exactly the number that is being offered.
2 rounds in, and Geelong concede the 2nd least: disposals, uncontested possessions, and uncontested marks. This should drag Atley’s score down, as he:
Doesn’t take kick ins (took 2 in Round 1, didn’t play on in either), has the 2nd most uncontested possessions for North, averages the equal most uncontested marks for North, and I also hate how he’s played 200+ games before turning 28…
Recommended Bets:
1.25 Units – North Melbourne Under 55.5 Team Total Points @ $1.88 (Ladbrokes)
1.5 Units – Shaun Atley Under 76.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)
Odds are correct as of 12:35 - Sunday 18th April 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change,