AFL Round 5 - Sunday

Adelaide v Fremantle Player Prop

  • Fremantle concede the 3nd most uncontested possessions in the league, and the 4th most uncontested marks in the league

  • Sholl averages the most uncontested marks for the Crows (6.5/game)

  • Sholl averages the 2nd most uncontested possessions for the Crows (16)

  • Fremantle have given up some big scores to “uncontested” midfielders in 2021:

  • S May 92, E Langdon 95, J Lever 87, Harmes 86 (not normally uncontested-type player, but played on the wing round 1)

  • I Cumming 91, J Kelly 90

  • L Fogarty 120, M Gibbons 103, J Newnes 95, L Jones 88

  • C Jiath 102, J Impey 97, M Hartley 95, H Morrison 85

  • Fremantle are happy to give up uncontested possessions (4th worst +/- uncontested possessions), and I think Sholl will reap the benefits here.

  • No surprises, but I’d happily pivot to Seedsman/Brodie Smith also

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Lachie Sholl Over 83.5 Fantasy Points @ 1.88 (Pointsbet)


Hawthorn v Melbourne

  • Melbourne are 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games, dating back to last season

  • All wins have been by 1-39

  • Melbourne are 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS against Hawthorn since 2018

  • Since 2020, Hawthorn are 0-6 SU, 4-2 ATS when underdogs of 15+ points

  • All games have resulted in a 1-39 loss

Player Prop:

  • Although this doesn’t look like as good of a matchup as it did last year (when Melbourne conceded the 2nd most uncontested possessions per game), I think they’ve limited these possessions more to the back half

  • Melbourne have conceded:

  • Luke Ryan 83 DT, H Young 71

  • Dougal Howard 111 DT, C Wilkie 104

  • Lachie Ash 91, Isaac Cumming 91, Sam Taylor 79

  • Tom Stewart 99, Tom Atkins 88

  • Jiath has been super consistent since Will Day got injured (Round 2)

  • Scoring 86, 100, and 102

  • Note: I actually have a lot of “leans” in this game in terms of player props… I reckon this could make for a nice SGM 👀

Recommended Bets:

  • 1 Unit – Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)

  • 1 Unit - Changkuoth Jiath Over 84.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

Geelong v North Melbourne

  • There have been 159 games where a team is 50+ point underdogs since 2011, under dogs are 7-152 SU, 84-75 ATS in these games

  • Team total UNDER is 93-65-1

  • In their last 9 games, North Melbourne Team Total Under is 9-0

  • Average +/- of TT O/U is = - 17.22

  • Geelong have been 30+ point favourites at GMHBA Stadium 17-1 SU, 11-7 ATS in these games

  • Opposition Team Total Under is 12-6 in these games

Player Prop:

  • Shaun Atley median DT Score this season is 76.5, which is exactly the number that is being offered.

  • 2 rounds in, and Geelong concede the 2nd least: disposals, uncontested possessions, and uncontested marks. This should drag Atley’s score down, as he:

  • Doesn’t take kick ins (took 2 in Round 1, didn’t play on in either), has the 2nd most uncontested possessions for North, averages the equal most uncontested marks for North, and I also hate how he’s played 200+ games before turning 28…

Recommended Bets:

  • 1.25 Units – North Melbourne Under 55.5 Team Total Points @ $1.88 (Ladbrokes)

  • 1.5 Units – Shaun Atley Under 76.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

Odds are correct as of 12:35 - Sunday 18th April 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change,