AFL Round 5 - Saturday

Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast

  • Since Stuart Dew took over from the Suns, the Suns are 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS against the Bulldogs

  • Win by 9, loss by 5, win by 5

  • Cover by an average of 18.17 points

  • In these games, Under is 3-0

  • Average +/- of -O/U = -19.5 points

  • Suns are 1-4 SU, 4-1 ATS at Marvel Stadium under Dew

  • Cover by an average of 17.7 points

  • Under is 3-2 in these games

  • Average +/- of O/U = -8.4 points

  • Western Bulldogs are 12-2 SU, 5-9 ATS as 30+ point underdogs at Marvel Stadium under Luke Beveridge

  • Under is 10-4 in these games

  • Average +/- of -8.93 points

  • Model Says: Dogs by 30

Recommended Bets:

  • 1.25 Unit - Under 169.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (TAB)

  • 0.75 Units – Gold Coast Suns +38.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)

Sydney v GWS Giants

Player Prop:

  • Nick Haynes has scored 73, 53, 64, and 71 points this season, averaging 65.25

  • Averages the third most for GWS Backs playing tomorrow (Ash 86.5, Cumming 85.8)

  • The third highest-scoring back scores an average of 57.5 points against the Swans this year

  • H Andrews 44

  • D Mackay 42

  • N Broad 70

  • N Hind 74

  • - Sydney concede the least points to backs in the league, -16.4 points/player below average.

Recommended Bet: 1.25 Units – Nick Haynes Under 74.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.85 (Ladbrokes)


Brisbane v Essendon

  • Brisbane are 20-5 SU, 12-13 ATS at the Gabba since 2019

  • 17 of the 25 games have resulted in a Brisbane 1-39 win

  • There’s not much to go off considering Essendon are officially only 4 weeks into their new coach’s tenure.

  • For what it’s worth – I’m tipping Essendon + points in the lines tipping comp.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Brisbane 1-39 @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)


Carlton v Port Adelaide

  • Port Adelaide are 7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS at the MCG under Ken Hinkley

  • This is largely irrelevant because Teague’s only coached in one of them, but I did find it very interesting, or at least intriguing: Carlton have played at the MCG against interstate sides on 9 occasions since 2014, and 8 of the 9 of them have been decided by 21 points or less (the other was 27)

  • Since David Teague took over, 24 of Carlton’s 32 games have been decided by 24 points or less

  • Most in the league (Essendon – 21)

  • Under is 32-11 in night games played at the MCG – when you exclude Round 1 – since 2017

  • Average +/- of O/U = -10.73 points

  • One thing is keeping me from playing this bigger, and that’s Over is 11-2 in the last 13 Port true away games. Most have been day games

Recommended Bet: 1.25 Units – Under 167.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)


Odds are correct as of 14:20 – 17th April 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.