AFL Round 5, 2020 - Thurs/Fri

St Kilda v Carlton

• Won’t be too many historical trends as these two teams have relatively new coaches

• St Kilda have averaged 78.33 points at Marvel Stadium this season

• 54, 88, 93

• Carlton have conceded an average of 71.75 points this season

• 105, 54, 77, and 51

• St Kilda had 8 shots on goal from insider 25m last week. No wonder why they kicked 15.3

• Expect them to get plenty of looks at goal… especially with all of the recent “state of the game” chatter we’ve heard all week (insert “eyes emoji” here).

• You may think we’re just “chasing our losses” on Marc Murphy after he ensured our u20.5 disposals bet last week was a loser with his 21 disposals, but I still like the spot and I would sure play it again. Granted Murphy played very well for his 21 disposals, but if he has to play “that” well to gather 21 touches, I’ll bet it again and again considering his recent change of role.

• With Jacob Weitering doing a great job holding down the big men, this leaves a great opportunity for the Saints' smalls. Also, with the AFL looking to focus on rewarding "holding the ball", Butler could be the beneficiary; as he has the most tackles inside 50, in the league (3 / per game).

Recommended Bets:

- 1u STK o66.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.89 (Bet365)*

- 1u Marc Murphy u20.5 Disposals @ $1.88 (TopSport)

- 0.5u Dan Butler 2+ Goals @ $2.80 (Sportsbet)

- 0.5u Dan Butler Most Goals @ $8.50 (Poinstbet)

Collingwood v Essendon

• Under is 4-0 between these two sides since 2018

• Average 144, Median 141.5. 80% = 115.2, 113.2

• Under is 22-4 in night games played in winter at the MCG since 2015

• Average 141 (112.8), Median 139.5 (111.6)

• Expecting some rain in this one, also.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 116.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)*

* Indicates the bets were posted on Wednesday Night.

Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.