AFL Round 4 - Sunday

North Melbourne v Adelaide

Melbourne v Geelong

Since Simon Goodwin took over for Melbourne, Geelong are 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS against the Dees
4 wins by 1-39
Melbourne are 11-17 SU, 8-20 ATS at the MCG against Victorian sides under Simon Goodwin
Average cover margin = -11.71 points
Under is 31-12 in Geelong games played at the MCG since 2014
Average +/- of o/u is -11.59 points
Under is 16-12 in Melbourne games since 2018

Recommended Bet: 0.5 Units – Geelong 1-39 & Under 156.5 @ $4.60 (Pointsbet)

Fremantle v Hawthorn

Under is 7-1 in Fremantle games at Optus Stadium under Justin Longmuire
2020 ave = 91 points (113.75 after scaling)
143 in one game in 2020
Average +/- of o/u = -16.88 points
Excluding 2020, because practically all games were played interstate, Under is 12-7 in Hawthorn games played outside of Victoria/Tasmania since 2016
Average +/- of o/u = only -1

Recommended Bet: 1.25 Units – Under 151.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.88 (Ladbrokes)

** both plays were posted on Twitter on Sunday morning

Player Props

1.25 Units - Ben Keays (Adelaide) over 90.5 DT Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

Ben Keays has scored 91, 94, and 99 points this season
North Melbourne concede the 4th most DT points to centres and to top-3 centres after, 3 rounds. Expect a bump for Ben Keays, especially with Rory Sloane out.
Additional note: I’ve also had another Adelaide player in my mind over the weekend – Sam Berry. Who? “Oh you mean the guy who has played a total of 3 AFL games and has recorded 8, 7, and 10 in these games?”… Yep, that’s him…
Call me crazy, but here’s my thinking:
Adelaide run a pretty tight ship when it comes to Centre Bounce Attendances (CBA’s)
Laird 78%
Sloane 78%
Keays 71%
Berry 35%
Schoenberg 34%
They’re the only team to have 3+ midfielders to each attend 70+% of CBA’s. With Sloane out, expect a big boost to Sam Berry. He may not see Sloane’s 70%, but it wouldn’t surprise me. With more exposure around the contest, I’m desperately scouring through any potential markets.

0.75 Units – Sam Berry (Adelaide) 15+ Disposals @ $2.30 (Bet365 Bet Builder)

0.25 Units – Berry 20+ Disposals @ $9.50 (Bet365 Bet Builder)

1.5 Units – Ed Langdon (Melbourne) Under 96.5 DT Points @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)

Well, here we are again. A winger coming up against the Cats.
The Cats continue on their stingy way, conceding the 2nd least uncontested possessions, and 2nd least uncontested marks.
Ed Langdon leads the Dees in uncontested marks, and has the 2nd most uncontested possessions for the Dees. The Geelong playstyle will negatively impact Langdon the most
#1 Wingers vs Geelong so far in 2021:
Paul Seedsman 80 DT
Hugh McCluggage 78 DT
Tom Phillips 81 DT
Langdon has scored 95, 98, and 110 this season. Super consistent, so far. But I predict he struggles today.
Langdon had 59 DT points vs Geelong last season (73.75 after scaling)

1 Unit – Caleb Serong (Fremantle) Over 81.5 DT Points @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)

8 of the 9 who has attended 45+% of CBA’s against Hawthorn this year, have scored 90+ DT points this season
Serong has attended 60+% of CBA’s in every game this year so far
Serong leads the team in contested possessions, and is 3rd in tackles. These conditions should suit him here.

Player Prop odds are correct as of 12:45 – Sunday 11th April 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly!

THE TREND BETTOR