AFL Round 4 - Sunday

North Melbourne v Adelaide

  • A 1st year coach up against a 2nd year coach? Trends are no use here. Next…

Melbourne v Geelong

  • Since Simon Goodwin took over for Melbourne, Geelong are 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS against the Dees

  • 4 wins by 1-39

  • Melbourne are 11-17 SU, 8-20 ATS at the MCG against Victorian sides under Simon Goodwin

  • Average cover margin = -11.71 points

  • Under is 31-12 in Geelong games played at the MCG since 2014

  • Average +/- of o/u is -11.59 points

  • Under is 16-12 in Melbourne games since 2018

Recommended Bet: 0.5 Units – Geelong 1-39 & Under 156.5 @ $4.60 (Pointsbet)


Fremantle v Hawthorn

  • Under is 7-1 in Fremantle games at Optus Stadium under Justin Longmuire

  • 2020 ave = 91 points (113.75 after scaling)

  • 143 in one game in 2020

  • Average +/- of o/u = -16.88 points

  • Excluding 2020, because practically all games were played interstate, Under is 12-7 in Hawthorn games played outside of Victoria/Tasmania since 2016

  • Average +/- of o/u = only -1

Recommended Bet: 1.25 Units – Under 151.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.88 (Ladbrokes)


** both plays were posted on Twitter on Sunday morning


Player Props


1.25 Units - Ben Keays (Adelaide) over 90.5 DT Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

  • Ben Keays has scored 91, 94, and 99 points this season

  • North Melbourne concede the 4th most DT points to centres and to top-3 centres after, 3 rounds. Expect a bump for Ben Keays, especially with Rory Sloane out.

  • Additional note: I’ve also had another Adelaide player in my mind over the weekend – Sam Berry. Who? “Oh you mean the guy who has played a total of 3 AFL games and has recorded 8, 7, and 10 in these games?”… Yep, that’s him…

  • Call me crazy, but here’s my thinking:

  • Adelaide run a pretty tight ship when it comes to Centre Bounce Attendances (CBA’s)

  • Laird 78%

  • Sloane 78%

  • Keays 71%

  • Berry 35%

  • Schoenberg 34%

  • They’re the only team to have 3+ midfielders to each attend 70+% of CBA’s. With Sloane out, expect a big boost to Sam Berry. He may not see Sloane’s 70%, but it wouldn’t surprise me. With more exposure around the contest, I’m desperately scouring through any potential markets.

0.75 Units – Sam Berry (Adelaide) 15+ Disposals @ $2.30 (Bet365 Bet Builder)

0.25 Units – Berry 20+ Disposals @ $9.50 (Bet365 Bet Builder)


1.5 Units – Ed Langdon (Melbourne) Under 96.5 DT Points @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)

  • Well, here we are again. A winger coming up against the Cats.

  • The Cats continue on their stingy way, conceding the 2nd least uncontested possessions, and 2nd least uncontested marks.

  • Ed Langdon leads the Dees in uncontested marks, and has the 2nd most uncontested possessions for the Dees. The Geelong playstyle will negatively impact Langdon the most

  • #1 Wingers vs Geelong so far in 2021:

  • Paul Seedsman 80 DT

  • Hugh McCluggage 78 DT

  • Tom Phillips 81 DT

  • Langdon has scored 95, 98, and 110 this season. Super consistent, so far. But I predict he struggles today.

  • Langdon had 59 DT points vs Geelong last season (73.75 after scaling)

1 Unit – Caleb Serong (Fremantle) Over 81.5 DT Points @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)

  • 8 of the 9 who has attended 45+% of CBA’s against Hawthorn this year, have scored 90+ DT points this season

  • Serong has attended 60+% of CBA’s in every game this year so far

  • Serong leads the team in contested possessions, and is 3rd in tackles. These conditions should suit him here.

Player Prop odds are correct as of 12:45 – Sunday 11th April 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly!