AFL Round 4 - Saturday

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane

  • Each of the last 5 games between these two sides have been decided by 24 points or less

  • 14, 14, 16, 18, and 24

  • Dogs are 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS in these games

  • Over is 5-2 in games between Luke Beveridge and Chris Fagan

  • Average +/- of O/U = +13.08

  • The Dogs are 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS in Ballarat

  • Over is 2-2 in Ballarat

Notes: I’m very wary of this game. There’s a bit to like from a true trends point of view, but there are enough elements to make me want to reconsider. Them being:

- This is a horrible spot for the Lions. 3 weeks on the road, after a gutsy win which followed a heartbreaking loss. It’s been an emotional couple of weeks away from home, away from family etc. I just don’t know whether this will have an impact, or not. And if so, how much? I’m not saying the Lions will definitely get belted, but there’s enough doubt in my mind, telling me it all may just be “too hard” this week. Staying away from this game in general. Waiting for more player props to open up, but I suspect I’ll have one.

St Kilda v West Coast

  • Considering Brett Ratten has only been at St Kilda than less than 2 full seasons, it’s hard to look too deeply at head-to-head matchups

  • …but, each of the last 5 games between these two teams have been decided by under 19.5 points. WCE won by 15 points last season

  • St Kilda are 7-7 SU, 10-4 ATS as underdogs under Brett Ratten.

  • Cover by an average of +8.36 points

  • This record goes to 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS when underdogs at Marvel Stadium under Brett Ratten

  • Cover by an average of 30.9 points

Notes: Some of the hardest bets to make turn out to be your best ones. What’s hard about this bet? Well, have you watched St Kilda in the last 2 weeks? One bad game, people think “ahhh, they’ll bounce back”. Another bad game, and it the public not trust them. When no one wants to bet them, that’s when you SHOULD bet them, because they’re cheap. I won’t bet too many lines this week, but this is my strongest - although, how did that work for me that week (eye roll).

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – St Kilda +14.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)

Collingwood v GWS

  • We have another “Port Adelaide night games at AO = Unders” type situation here

  • Since Leon Cameron took over from GWS, Under is 14-4 in games played at the MCG

  • Average +/- of O/U = -16.36 points

  • Under is 4-1 in games between these two teams at the MCG with these coaches

  • Average +/- of -17.6 points

  • Yeah, yeah; before anyone jumps down my throat and tells me that the players who played back in 2013 don’t make up the teams of that are playing tonight. Yes I am fully aware of this fact. But one thing *I* value (and I don’t think people consider enough… or at all, is coaching at individual grounds. Each ground is individually unique, and how a coach wants his players to play on a particular ground can heavily dictate scoring. If you don’t agree, that’s fine, you can argue with my all-time record of 60+ units (13 ROI%) on Over/Unders from the last few years, alone.

  • Where was i? Oh yes…

  • If you took away “Round 1” out of the equation, where it seems like every team is scoring for fun, year on year; Under is 49-23 in all night games played at the MCG since 2015

  • Average +/- of O/U = -9.4 points

  • Collingwood games are 9-4, with a Ave +/- of = -9.7 points

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Under 159.5 Total Points Scored $1.90 (TAB)

Gold Coast v Carlton

  • Not even thinking about playing this game. I was wrong on Carlton last week, and I think I’m going to just sit back and observe this one.

  • Lean probably towards an Either Term by Under 19.5 or something, here. But again, don’t love anything. Will look for props when markets come up.

Odds are correct as of 06:00 - Saturday 10th April 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.