AFL Round 4 - Port Adelaide v Richmond

  • Under is 6-3 between these two teams since 2015

  • Ave +/- of O/U = -12.94 points

  • This is one of my all-time favourite trends…

  • Under is 30-6 in Port Adelaide night games played at Adelaide Oval

  • Ave +/- of O/U = -15.02 points

  • Would normally have a bigger stake, but 2 things are holding me back.

  • This trend is stronger in the middle of winter than it is in the middle of autumn

  • I’m still treading carefully with playing totals (especially unders) due to the new rules.

  • I still really like that play, but not a max-play like it has been in the past.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Under 168.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.88 (Ladbrokes)

Player Prop

  • If you’ve been following us for a while, you’ll know that one of our favourite spots, in terms of player props, is playing wingers against Richmond.

  • This seems like a very niche advantage, but it’s one that Richmond Head Coach Damien Hardwick has addressed, and somewhat admitted himself. Here’s a quote from June 2020.

  • “Wings always have a good game against us… We play a certain style with our wings, we're happy with our system and the way it goes, so numbers are numbers. "There are certain numbers you can look at and possessions you can look at but we look at the win-loss column. "It's cost-benefit from our point of view and sides will get an advantage in one way but we'll get an advantage in another.”

  • This mantra has carried into 2021 with big scores to opposing wingers

  • Jack Newnes 104

  • Tom Phillips 84

  • Ollie Florent 103, Chad Warner 100

  • 3 weeks in, and Richmond concede the most uncontested marks, and the 3rd most uncontested possessions. Even though Hardwick said they’ll tweak their system during the week, I highly doubt he’ll be throwing the baby out with the bath water after one bad game. I expect much more of the same.

  • Looking at which players I want to target, it has to be between Karl Amon (81% uncontested possession rate), Steven Motlop (82%), or Xavier Duursma (77%).

  • There aren’t too many Motlop/Duursma markets, so I think our hands are kind of forced here.

  • Amon has scored 62 (77.5 scaling) and 86 (107.5) in 2020, and 103 in 2019

  • Karl Amon has scored 74, 89, and 103 so far this year. Take away his 2.2 this year, and Amon still averages 84 points. A goal will definitely help, but without them, I still have him going over his market number.

Recommended Bet: 1.25 Units – Karl Amon Over 80.5 DT Points @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)

Odds are correct as of 13:25 - Friday 9th of April 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.