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AFL Round 3 - Collingwood v Brisbane

  • Collingwood are 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS against Brisbane since 2018

  • Over is 2-2 in these game

  • Collingwood are 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS at Marvel Stadium since 2017

  • Under is 18-7 in Collingwood games at Marvel Stadium under Nathan Buckley

  • Average +/- of o/u = -13.58 points

  • Brisbane are 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS at Marvel Stadium since 2018

  • Over is 5-3 in Brisbane games at Marvel since 2018

  • Average +/- of o/u = +5.2 points

  • Note: I would normally play the “Under” in this spot, but I’m generally staying away from totals – especially Unders - this early in the season due to the rule changes. No play, here.

Player Props

  • The Lions have a completely different matchup to what they did last week. Last week they came up against a Geelong side that concedes the least amount of disposals and uncontested disposals, whereas they now face a Collingwood side that concede both of these for fun.

  • 2 round in, and Collingwood concede the 2nd most disposals per game, and the 3rd most uncontested disposals.

  • This is a trend going on from the previous few seasons as Collingwood conceded, especially off half back.

  • Collingwood concede an average of 94 DT points to top-3 backs

  • 3rd most in the league

  • Conceded THE most in 2020

  • Daniel Rich has scored 90 and 95 in his two games this season

  • I expect a boost from his usual numbers

  • Rich scored 73 against Collingwood last season (91.25 after scaling)

Recommended Bet: 1.25 Units – Daniel Rich Over 88.5 DT Points @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)


Odds are correct as of 17:15 Thursday 1st of April 2021 AEDT. Odds are subject to change.