AFL Round 3

Richmond v Hawthorn

  • Richmond are 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS against Hawthorn since 2017

  • Winning margins of 29, 13, 31, and 36

  • Under is 9-3 when these two teams play, since Hardwick has been the Richmond coach

  • Richmond are 45-5-1 SU, 35-12 ATS at the MCG since 2017

  • 29 wins by 1-39

  • Hawthorn are 12-9 SU, 11-10 ATS at the MCG since 2018

  • Each of the last 14 games have been decided by 39 points or under

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Richmond by -8.5 @ $2.00 (Ladbrokes) – Posted on Wednesday Night*

Western Bulldogs v GWS

  • Western Bulldogs are 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS against GWS since their 2016 PF

  • Margins of -2, -48, -82, +61, -58

  • GWS are 2-3-1 SU, 2-4 ATS at Marvel Stadium since 2017

  • Under is 4-2. Average 166, Median 155

  • Under is 16-4 in Bulldogs games at Marvel Stadium where they are underdogs

  • Average 160, Median 159

  • Under is 11-4 in GWS games away from NSW/ACT sine 2019

  • Average 151, Median 154

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Under 137.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)

North Melbourne v Sydney

  • North Melbourne are 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS against Sydney since 2016

  • Margins of -26, -9, -42, +2, -6, -5

  • Sydney are 8-9 SU, 12-5 ATS in games as underdogs away from the SCG since 2018

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Sydney +10.5 @ $2.00 (Ladbrokes)

Collingwood v St Kilda

  • Collingwood are 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS against St Kilda since 2016

  • Collingwood are 9-5 SU, 5-9 ATS as favourites at the MCG since 2019

  • Under Brett Ratten, St Kilda are 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS as underdogs

  • Our model tells us that St Kilda have been these 2nd most dominant team this season. Collingwood 3rd.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – St Kilda +15.5 @ $2.00 (Ladbrokes)

Brisbane v West Coast

  • West Coast are 8-8 SU, 10-6 ATS as underdogs since 2018

  • Overrated? Brisbane are 4-4 SU, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games

  • Brisbane are 5-1 SU, 1-4 ATS in their last 6 games as favourites

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – West Coast +3.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365/BetEasy)

Geelong v Carlton

  • Geelong’s opposition team total over/under is 3-5 in night games at GMHBA Stadium since 2018

  • Average 51, Median 46.5

  • Carlton have averaged 63 team total points in games played outside of Melbourne since 2018

  • Median 61

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Carlton Team Total - Under 52.5 @ $1.85 (Ladbrokes)

Odds are correct as of 11:25, 18th of June 2020 AEST. Odds are subject to change. Gamble responsibly.

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