AFL Round 23 - Saturday

Trend of the Week: Over-Under is 56-33 (62.92%) in games played in the last round of the season since 2011, but in games where both teams are realistically eliminated from the finals hunt, in increases to 16-6 (72.73%).

The games in which this is relevant to are:

- Richmond vs Hawthorn

- Adelaide vs North Melbourne (will wait to see on weather)

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Rich/Haw Over 159.5 @ $1.90 (Pointsbet)

Brisbane v West Coast

- Brisbane have found their scoring mojo at the Gabba of late, going 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 at the venue

o Average cover margin = +31.3 points

- Over is 4-1 in these 5 games

o Average total score = 181

o Average cover margin = +18.5 points

- Eagles are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS against top 8 sides away from WA in 2021

o Average losing margin = -53 points

o Average cover margin = -46 points

- Over is 3-1 in these games

o Average total score = 171

o Average cover margin = +7.5

o Opposition Team Total Over is 4-0 in these games

Note: When I like a heavy favourite, as well as the over, the first thing I do is think to myself “is there a correlation?”. And by that, what I mean is, if the favourite covers, is it most likely going to go “over” also? The answer is yes. Before you ask, no, this isn’t always the case. If you think of any team that Ross Lyon has coached, or the typical early 2010s Sydney Swans teams, they could win by 40 points, but there could be just 130 points scored for the game (85-45 final score). But in this situation, where the Lions have the #1 scoring offence in the league, *IF* the Lions cover the line, it’s most likely that it’s because they’ve piled on a tonne of goals, as opposed to limiting their opposition to so few. So again, the answer is “yes, there is a correlation”. Due to this correlation, we will not bet both the over and the favourite individually, because then you would just be over-exposing yourself as you’re practically betting for the same outcome… twice.

I don’t do this too often, but when I do, I feel like it is justifiable to do so. Not only do I feel confident in both the line and the total, but playing it like this allows for some margin of error.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Brisbane -26.5 / Over 159.5 @ $2 (TAB)

Carlton v GWS

- Since Round 18, Over-Under is a collective 8-2 between these two sides

o Average total points = 164.1

o Average cover = +6.8 points

- Between these two teams, they have played at Marvel Stadium 10 times this year, Over is 8-2

o Average total points = 175

o Average cover = +9.5 points

- I’d be playing Over this number if it weren’t a round 23 game, but the fact that it is gives me extra confidence.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Over 167.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Pointsbet)

Player Props:

1.5 Units - Riley Collier-Dawkins (Richmond) 15+ Disposals @ $1.85 (Bet365) 0.5 Units – Riley Collier-Dawkins (Richmond) 20+ Disposals @ $6 (Bet365)

- Worst Richmond team fielded provides opportunities. With Cotchin, Edwards, Prestia, Lambert, Dusty etc., all out, some one has to fill their roles. Probably wont play as well as, but they will be given the same opportunities

- RCD played earlier on in the year, when Cotchin and Prestia were out. In 3 of the games, RCD had a 60+% centre bounce attendance (CBA) rate. He had 14, 18, and 18 disposals in these games. He should get at least this amount of opportunity

- Although the superior midfield today, Hawthorn’s can be quite leaky and opposition mids tend to have big days.

1.25 Unit - George Hewett (Sydney) 25+ Disposals @ $3 (Bet365) 1.25 Unit – Luke Parker (Sydney) Over 27.5 Disposals @ $1.98 (Sportsbet)

- George Hewett was looking to see a decrease in midfield minutes this week as Callum Mills was due to come back, but with Josh Kennedy out this week, not only does it allow him to stay in the guts, but it allows him to be more of a contested player, something he thrives off I believe.

- Hewett averages 24 touches in the last 5 weeks.

- Parker’s median disposals this season is 29. He had 36 vs GC in round 6

- Gold Coast concede the most disposals, and most contested possessions in the league.

1 Unit – Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane) 25+ disposals @ $1.91 (Sportsbet)

- West Coast concede the most uncontested possessions in the league

- McCluggage averages the most uncontested possessions at the Lions

- McCluggage’s median disposals is 26 this season

2 Units – Sam Walsh (Carlton) Under 27.5 Disposals @ $1.96 (Sportsbet)

- I fully expect Lachie Ash to go straight to Sam Walsh, just like how Matt De Boer did in round 14 when he kept him to a season-low 20 touches.

- Walsh’s last 4 games has been 30, 23, 26, and 27 touches