Essendon v Fremantle
Essendon are 12-9 SU, 5-16 ATS when favourites of 10.5+ points under John Worsfold
Our model (of game-statistics) suggests that Essendon were the most over-achieving team last season and these two are just about on level par with each other on a neutral field. Although it’s a new season, I’ll happily take the points here, with a sprinkle on to win.
0.5 Units – Fremantle +15.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)
0.25 Units – Fremantle ML @ $2.85 (TopSport)
Adelaide v Sydney
A lot of water has gone under the bridge since 2016, but Sydney are 12-11 SU, 16-7 as away underdogs since then. Not too many clubs would be better in this spot than them.
In that time, the home teams are 6-17 against the Team Total (TT)
- 0.5 Units – Adelaide Under 74.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)
- 0.25 Units – Sydney by 1-39 @ $2.66 (TopSport)
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide
Over went 10-2 in Port Adelaide games played away from Adelaide Oval in 2019
Average O/U = 163.3, Average points scored 175
Over went 6-4 in Gold Coast games played at Metricon Stadium in 2019
Average O/U = 159.8, Average points scored = 165
Stuart Dew has said he will be looking for his players to play a brand that involves more “aggressive ball movement”. Hopefully that results in high scores at both ends.
Recommended Bet: 0.5 Units – Over 147.5 Total Points Scored @ $2 (Topsport)
GWS v Geelong
Under is 7-1 when these two teams play since 2014
Average O/U = 174.13, Average points scored = 153
Under is 7-3 in night game played at Giants Stadium
Average O/U = 172.3, Average points scored = 167
Under is 17-8 in Geelong games played outside of Victoria since 2015
Average O/U = 174.18, Average points scored = 167
Recommended Bet: 0.5 Units – Under 149.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)
Odds are correct as of 00:00 Saturday 21st March, 2020. Odds are subject to change.