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Geelong are 9-1 SU, 10-0 ATS against Brisbane since 2014
6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS since Chris Fagan took over Brisbane.
Geelong cover their line by an average of 23.64 points against Fagan’s Brisbane.
Geelong are 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in games at GMHBA Stadium when they AREN’T favourites of 10+ points.
Geelong are 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS at GMHBA Stadium against interstate sides
Cover by an average of 15.4
Largely a different side, but Brisbane are 0-2 at GMHBA Stadium under Chris Fagan.
Losses by 69 in 2016 and 42 in 2018
Something for Lion backers – Brisbane are 8-7 SU, 9-6 ATS as underdogs since 2019.
Cover by an average of 7.57 points
Played this prop last year, twice… cashed, twice. So we’ll look through the same lens again
Hugh McCluggage averaged 18.68 disposals in 2020 (23.35 after scaling)
McCluggage had 17 (21.25) and 10 (12.5) against Geelong in 2020.
Wingers were starved of the footy against Geelong in 2020.
Geelong conceded the least disposals and least uncontested possessions in 2020.
Despite losing, Geelong conceded the 2nd least disposals and uncontested possessions in Round 1.
McCluggage had the 2nd most uncontested possessions for Brisbane last year (Neale – most) and the most last week against Sydney.
Late note: When digging through some player prop markets, I found something that I think sticks out. Cam Guthrie Most Disposals (Group A) @ $7 (Topsport). Obviously Lachie Neale is the red-hot favourite, but if (obviously an ask) he can get past Neale, I’d have Guthrie favourite. Which if you compare the over/unders, so he should be. Guthrie o/u is 27.5 ($7 Group A), Tom Stewart 24.5 ($6.50), Jarryd Lyons 26.5 ($6.50). So he’s projected to have the 2nd most disposals, but is 4th shortest in this market? Doesn’t make sense to me. With Danger, Duncan and Menegola out, I think there’s extra reliance on Cam Guthrie. Higgins is obviously capable at $8, but don’t love it as much as I do with Guthrie.
1.25 Units – Geelong -7.5 @ $2 (Ladbrokes)
1 Unit – Hugh McCluggage Under 22.5 Disposals @ $1.92 (Ladbrokes)
0.25 Units – Cam Guthrie Most Disposals (Group A) @ $7 (Topsport)
Odds are correct as of 16:55 - Friday 26th March, 2021 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change.