AFL Round 2 - GEEL v BRIS

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  • Geelong are 9-1 SU, 10-0 ATS against Brisbane since 2014

  • 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS since Chris Fagan took over Brisbane.

  • Geelong cover their line by an average of 23.64 points against Fagan’s Brisbane.

  • Geelong are 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in games at GMHBA Stadium when they AREN’T favourites of 10+ points.

  • Geelong are 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS at GMHBA Stadium against interstate sides

  • Cover by an average of 15.4

  • Largely a different side, but Brisbane are 0-2 at GMHBA Stadium under Chris Fagan.

  • Losses by 69 in 2016 and 42 in 2018

  • Something for Lion backers – Brisbane are 8-7 SU, 9-6 ATS as underdogs since 2019.

  • Cover by an average of 7.57 points

Player Props:

  • Played this prop last year, twice… cashed, twice. So we’ll look through the same lens again

  • Hugh McCluggage averaged 18.68 disposals in 2020 (23.35 after scaling)

  • McCluggage had 17 (21.25) and 10 (12.5) against Geelong in 2020.

  • Wingers were starved of the footy against Geelong in 2020.

  • Geelong conceded the least disposals and least uncontested possessions in 2020.

  • Despite losing, Geelong conceded the 2nd least disposals and uncontested possessions in Round 1.

  • McCluggage had the 2nd most uncontested possessions for Brisbane last year (Neale – most) and the most last week against Sydney.

Late note: When digging through some player prop markets, I found something that I think sticks out. Cam Guthrie Most Disposals (Group A) @ $7 (Topsport). Obviously Lachie Neale is the red-hot favourite, but if (obviously an ask) he can get past Neale, I’d have Guthrie favourite. Which if you compare the over/unders, so he should be. Guthrie o/u is 27.5 ($7 Group A), Tom Stewart 24.5 ($6.50), Jarryd Lyons 26.5 ($6.50). So he’s projected to have the 2nd most disposals, but is 4th shortest in this market? Doesn’t make sense to me. With Danger, Duncan and Menegola out, I think there’s extra reliance on Cam Guthrie. Higgins is obviously capable at $8, but don’t love it as much as I do with Guthrie.


Recommended Bets:

  • 1.25 Units – Geelong -7.5 @ $2 (Ladbrokes)

  • 1 Unit – Hugh McCluggage Under 22.5 Disposals @ $1.92 (Ladbrokes)

  • 0.25 Units – Cam Guthrie Most Disposals (Group A) @ $7 (Topsport)

Odds are correct as of 16:55 - Friday 26th March, 2021 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change.

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