AFL Round 15

Richmond v St Kilda

  • Richmond are 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS since Ratten took over the Saints

  • 26L, 31W, 86W

  • Richmond are 22-2 SU, 15-9 ATS as favourites of 15+ points at the MCG since 2017

  • 17 wins by 1-39

  • Saints are 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS at the MCG under Ratten

  • 10L and 44L

  • St Kilda are 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS as underdogs of 15+ points under Ratten

  • 4 losses by 1-39

  • Model says: Richmond by 22

Recommended Bet: 1.25 Units – Richmond 1-39 @ $2.02 (Topsport)


North Melbourne v Gold Coast

  • This is purely a model play, as it’s hard to look up trends with a first year coach playing at a stadium that isn’t frequently played at.

  • Model says: Gold Coast by 10

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Gold Coast to win @ $2.12 (Topsport)


Essendon v Melbourne

  • Melbourne are 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS in 2021

  • 11 wins by 1-39

  • Melbourne are 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS at the MCG in 2021

  • 5 wins by 1-39

  • Essendon are 6-7 SU, 8-5 ATS in 2021

  • 5 losses by 1-39

Note: I was just going to play Melbourne 1-39, but the model also likes Essendon at the line here (model predicts Melbourne by 14). Will cop it if Melbourne blow this out, but I reckon a Melbourne 1-22 win is a strong possibility. Practically break even if one wins without the other.

Recommended Bets:

- 1.1 Units – Essendon +22.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)

- 1 Unit – Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.04 (Topsport)


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Oods are correct as of 12:55 - Saturday 25th of June 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly!