The Trend BettorAFL Round 10 - Sunday
GWS vs West Coast – No Play
Collingwood vs Port Adelaide
Nothing to look at really, in terms of head to head trends in this game…
Last 4 games: Split 2-2 SU & ATS, and Over/Under
Port are 11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS as favourites away from Adelaide Oval since 2019
I believe games of footy are won by winning 3 simple statistics: Kicks, Tackles, and Marks Inside 50. This isn’t the be all and end all, of course not, but since 2019, teams who have won all three of these stats are 156-13-1 SU, and 141-29 ATS.
Here’s how each of these teams rank in these stats this year:
Collingwood have had more kicks than their opponents twice this year, and lost the kick count 7 times this season (2-7 for future reference). Tackles is 3-6, and Marks inside 50s is a dismal 0-2-7.
Port Adelaide are: 6-3 in kicks, 4-5 tackles, and 6-1-2 in marks.
You can probably see why I haven’t been betting on Collingwood at all this year.
When you break it down, Collingwood are (or at least playing like) a really, really bad football team.
Model says: Port Adelaide by 25
-- Player Props –
Geez, where do I begin?
Considering Collingwood concede THE most fantasy points to both backs and centres, it’s kind of hard to know where to focus. Darcy Byrne-Jones? Ollie Wines? Both good plays, but I’m going to settle for Karl Amon. Here’s why…
He’s the only one with a number available that is lower than his median score this year (98)
Collingwood concede the 2nd most uncontested possessions, and the most uncontested marks. This will suit Amon who leads Port Adelaide in both categories this year.
Now onto the other side of the ball… It pains me to say, but Scott Pendlebury has fallen off a cliff. Not in terms of his playing ability, but of his role and Fantasy output. Pendlebury attended 50+% of centre bounces from rounds 1-7. In the last two weeks this has dropped to 25% and 21%, with his share now going into the development of young Tyler Brown (86% and 79% in the last two weeks). Things will be moved around with Tay Adams back in the side this week, but Pendlebury playing pure midfield won’t be a change that we’ll see.
Pendlebury may make up his lack of disposals by kicking goals or finding marks on the outside, so I’m purely focusing on disposals here.
Pendlebury last two games: 21 and 23 disposals
Port concede the 3rd least disposals in the league
Recommended Bets:
- 1.5 Units – Port Adelaide -13.5 @ @ $1.95 (Topsport)
- 1.5 Units – Karl Amon o94.5 DT @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)
- 1.5 Units – Scott Pendlebury u24.5 Disposals @ $1.90 (TopSport)
Essendon v North Melbourne
Both first year coaches, no point looking too far back
Model says: Essendon by 16
This is always the tough part. I have Essendon winning, but North covering?
North’s last 5 weeks is heavily being considered:
Lost to Adelaide by 41 after leading at 3QT
Lost to Geelong by 30 at GMHBA
Lost to Freo by 51 after kicking themselves out of it (6.12)
Lost to Melbourne by 30 after leading for the majority of the game
Lost to Pies by 18
Beat Hawks by 7
I think they’re good enough to keep it relatively close, but Essendon should get over the line here.
You know what, I don’t do this often, but I’m going to play both. Let’s hope it works out like it did for the Dees vs Swans game. I don’t see Essendon blowing this out.
Recommended Bets:
- 1 Unit – Essendon 1-39 @ $2.20 (Sportsbet)
- 1.1 Units – North +22.5 @ $1.90 (Most Books)
Odds are correct as of 23:30 - Saturday 22nd of May 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.