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AFL Round 10 - Sunday

GWS vs West Coast – No Play


Collingwood vs Port Adelaide

  • Nothing to look at really, in terms of head to head trends in this game…

  • Last 4 games: Split 2-2 SU & ATS, and Over/Under

  • Port are 11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS as favourites away from Adelaide Oval since 2019

  • I believe games of footy are won by winning 3 simple statistics: Kicks, Tackles, and Marks Inside 50. This isn’t the be all and end all, of course not, but since 2019, teams who have won all three of these stats are 156-13-1 SU, and 141-29 ATS.

  • Here’s how each of these teams rank in these stats this year:

  • Collingwood have had more kicks than their opponents twice this year, and lost the kick count 7 times this season (2-7 for future reference). Tackles is 3-6, and Marks inside 50s is a dismal 0-2-7.

  • Port Adelaide are: 6-3 in kicks, 4-5 tackles, and 6-1-2 in marks.

  • You can probably see why I haven’t been betting on Collingwood at all this year.

  • When you break it down, Collingwood are (or at least playing like) a really, really bad football team.

  • Model says: Port Adelaide by 25

-- Player Props –

  • Geez, where do I begin?

  • Considering Collingwood concede THE most fantasy points to both backs and centres, it’s kind of hard to know where to focus. Darcy Byrne-Jones? Ollie Wines? Both good plays, but I’m going to settle for Karl Amon. Here’s why…

  • He’s the only one with a number available that is lower than his median score this year (98)

  • Collingwood concede the 2nd most uncontested possessions, and the most uncontested marks. This will suit Amon who leads Port Adelaide in both categories this year.

  • Now onto the other side of the ball… It pains me to say, but Scott Pendlebury has fallen off a cliff. Not in terms of his playing ability, but of his role and Fantasy output. Pendlebury attended 50+% of centre bounces from rounds 1-7. In the last two weeks this has dropped to 25% and 21%, with his share now going into the development of young Tyler Brown (86% and 79% in the last two weeks). Things will be moved around with Tay Adams back in the side this week, but Pendlebury playing pure midfield won’t be a change that we’ll see.

  • Pendlebury may make up his lack of disposals by kicking goals or finding marks on the outside, so I’m purely focusing on disposals here.

  • Pendlebury last two games: 21 and 23 disposals

  • Port concede the 3rd least disposals in the league

Recommended Bets:

- 1.5 Units – Port Adelaide -13.5 @ @ $1.95 (Topsport)

- 1.5 Units – Karl Amon o94.5 DT @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

- 1.5 Units – Scott Pendlebury u24.5 Disposals @ $1.90 (TopSport)


Essendon v North Melbourne

  • Both first year coaches, no point looking too far back

  • Model says: Essendon by 16

  • This is always the tough part. I have Essendon winning, but North covering?

  • North’s last 5 weeks is heavily being considered:

  • Lost to Adelaide by 41 after leading at 3QT

  • Lost to Geelong by 30 at GMHBA

  • Lost to Freo by 51 after kicking themselves out of it (6.12)

  • Lost to Melbourne by 30 after leading for the majority of the game

  • Lost to Pies by 18

  • Beat Hawks by 7

  • I think they’re good enough to keep it relatively close, but Essendon should get over the line here.

  • You know what, I don’t do this often, but I’m going to play both. Let’s hope it works out like it did for the Dees vs Swans game. I don’t see Essendon blowing this out.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Essendon 1-39 @ $2.20 (Sportsbet)

- 1.1 Units – North +22.5 @ $1.90 (Most Books)


Odds are correct as of 23:30 - Saturday 22nd of May 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.