Carlton v Hawthorn
Carlton are 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS against the Hawks, under David Teague
Over is 2-0 in these games
Average +/- of O/U = +19.5 points
Carlton are 7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS as favourites under David Teague
6 wins by 1-39
Over is 7-2 in Carlton games this season
Median total points = 185, Average +/- of O/U = +11.2 points
4-1, 185, and +19.3 at the MCG
Over is 5-4 in Hawthorn games this season
Median total points = 167.5, Average +/- of O/U = -1.5 points
4-0, 146, and -25.8 at the MCG
I was angling for an Over play here but I think I’ll stay away
-- Player Prop –
Hawthorn concede the 2nd most DT points to top-3 scoring centres, so give me all of Walsh/Curnow, and maybe Cripps, but mainly the first two.
Median scores: Curnow 97, Walsh 116
I expect about a +10 point boost here
Carlton generally defend talls pretty well, but with Plowman (26.3%) and Parks (40%) both losing over 25% of one on one contests, it could be a big opportunity for the Hawthorn mid-sized forwards. Jones and Weitering will have Koschitzke and Lewis, expect some goals for the likes of Breust, Wingard, and Moore.
I’ll be focusing on Breust, who has scored 2+ goals in 6 of his 9 games this season. Favourable matchup here.
- 1 Unit – Carlton 1-39 @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)
- 1 Units – Sam Walsh o108.5 DT @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)
- 2 Units – Luke Breust 2+ goals @ $1.95 @ (Topsport)
Geelong v Gold Coast Player Props
- We have two teams on the other side of the spectrum here
- Geelong concede the least disposals, uncontested and contested possessions, and the 2nd least uncontested marks. Especially down at the uniquely narrow Kardinia Park, I think it’ll be hard for Brandon Ellis to find the footy down there.
- I love playing in an under midfielders against the Suns, and we’re back on the Cam Guthrie train here – median 117.
o Midfielder scores vs Suns the last few weeks: Lyons 142, Zorko 127, McCluggage 121, Steele 136, Z Jones 123, Crouch 109, J P Kennedy 146, Mills 142.
Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Cam Guthrie Over 115.5 DT @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)
Adelaide v Melbourne Player Prop
Adelaide were one of the feel-good stories at the start of 2021. 3-1 and sitting 5th on the ladder after 4 rounds and Tex was looking like Wayne Carey. But the Crows have lost 5 in a row, and conceding a lot of goals to talls has been a problem.
Darling 5, J J Kennedy 3, Allen 3
Marshall 3, Dixon 2, Georgiades 2
Hogan 4, H Himmelberg 3, S Reid 2
Koschitzke 5, Breust 3, Lewis 2
It makes me like the trio of Tom Mcdonald, Sam Weideman, and Bayley Fritsch in this game.
Fritsch and Tom McDonald are understandably short, but Sam Weideman is at a very juicy price! We’re going to be on for multiples here, now he just needs to kick ‘em!
Recommended Bets: - 1.5 Units – Sam Weideman 2+ Goals @ $2.25 (Sportsbet) - 0.5 Units – Sam Weideman 3+ goals @ $5.25 (Ladbrokes) - 0.25 Units – Sam Weideman 4+ goals @ $14 (Ladbrokes) - 0.1 Units – Sam Weideman 5+ goals @ $46 (Sportsbet)
Fremantle v Sydney
- I don’t like playing games where heavy rain is predicted. But if it we’re a dry game, I’d be all over Sydney.
Western Bulldogs v St Kilda
St Kilda are 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS against the Bulldogs under Brett Ratten
St Kilda are 5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS as underdogs at Marvel Stadium under Ratten
Western Bulldogs are 15-3 SU, 6-12 ATS as favourites of 15+ points at Marvel Stadium against Victorian sides under Luke Beveridge
Note: just like I was in last week’s Saints game, I’m tossing up between Saints line and Loss by 1-39. I’m going for the same play, but please St Kilda, please kick straight!
Model says: Bulldogs by 18
-- Player Prop –
The Saints concede the 2nd most DT points to centres in 2021, and most of the damage are done by players who are in and around the contest.
Guthrie 138, Duncan 134, Swallow 130, Miller 119, Mitchell 128, Worpel 124, Shiels 119, Wines 129, Houston 127… you get the picture.
The obvious answers are probably Bont, Macrae, and Treloar. I’m not going Treloar because he had his lowest CBA rate last week since round 2, and I want someone who gets his hands on the footy first. I’m all over Tom Liberatore in this game.
I have Libba at a projected score of 97.
- 1 Unit – Saints +24.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)
- 1.5 Units – Tom Liberatore 88.5 DT @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)
Odds are correct as of 22:45 - Friday 21st of May 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.