AFL Round 10 - Saturday

Carlton v Hawthorn

• Carlton are 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS against the Hawks, under David Teague

• Over is 2-0 in these games

• Average +/- of O/U = +19.5 points

• Carlton are 7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS as favourites under David Teague

• 6 wins by 1-39

• Over is 7-2 in Carlton games this season

• Median total points = 185, Average +/- of O/U = +11.2 points

• 4-1, 185, and +19.3 at the MCG

• Over is 5-4 in Hawthorn games this season

• Median total points = 167.5, Average +/- of O/U = -1.5 points

• 4-0, 146, and -25.8 at the MCG

• I was angling for an Over play here but I think I’ll stay away

-- Player Prop –

• Hawthorn concede the 2nd most DT points to top-3 scoring centres, so give me all of Walsh/Curnow, and maybe Cripps, but mainly the first two.

• Median scores: Curnow 97, Walsh 116

• I expect about a +10 point boost here

• Carlton generally defend talls pretty well, but with Plowman (26.3%) and Parks (40%) both losing over 25% of one on one contests, it could be a big opportunity for the Hawthorn mid-sized forwards. Jones and Weitering will have Koschitzke and Lewis, expect some goals for the likes of Breust, Wingard, and Moore.

• I’ll be focusing on Breust, who has scored 2+ goals in 6 of his 9 games this season. Favourable matchup here.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Carlton 1-39 @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)

- 1 Units – Sam Walsh o108.5 DT @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

- 2 Units – Luke Breust 2+ goals @ $1.95 @ (Topsport)

Geelong v Gold Coast Player Props

• - We have two teams on the other side of the spectrum here

• - Geelong concede the least disposals, uncontested and contested possessions, and the 2nd least uncontested marks. Especially down at the uniquely narrow Kardinia Park, I think it’ll be hard for Brandon Ellis to find the footy down there.

• - I love playing in an under midfielders against the Suns, and we’re back on the Cam Guthrie train here – median 117.

• o Midfielder scores vs Suns the last few weeks: Lyons 142, Zorko 127, McCluggage 121, Steele 136, Z Jones 123, Crouch 109, J P Kennedy 146, Mills 142.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Cam Guthrie Over 115.5 DT @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

Adelaide v Melbourne Player Prop

• Adelaide were one of the feel-good stories at the start of 2021. 3-1 and sitting 5th on the ladder after 4 rounds and Tex was looking like Wayne Carey. But the Crows have lost 5 in a row, and conceding a lot of goals to talls has been a problem.

• Darling 5, J J Kennedy 3, Allen 3

• Marshall 3, Dixon 2, Georgiades 2

• Hogan 4, H Himmelberg 3, S Reid 2

• Koschitzke 5, Breust 3, Lewis 2

• Taberner 4

• It makes me like the trio of Tom Mcdonald, Sam Weideman, and Bayley Fritsch in this game.

• Fritsch and Tom McDonald are understandably short, but Sam Weideman is at a very juicy price! We’re going to be on for multiples here, now he just needs to kick ‘em!

Recommended Bets: - 1.5 Units – Sam Weideman 2+ Goals @ $2.25 (Sportsbet) - 0.5 Units – Sam Weideman 3+ goals @ $5.25 (Ladbrokes) - 0.25 Units – Sam Weideman 4+ goals @ $14 (Ladbrokes) - 0.1 Units – Sam Weideman 5+ goals @ $46 (Sportsbet)

Fremantle v Sydney

- I don’t like playing games where heavy rain is predicted. But if it we’re a dry game, I’d be all over Sydney.

Western Bulldogs v St Kilda

• St Kilda are 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS against the Bulldogs under Brett Ratten

• St Kilda are 5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS as underdogs at Marvel Stadium under Ratten

• Western Bulldogs are 15-3 SU, 6-12 ATS as favourites of 15+ points at Marvel Stadium against Victorian sides under Luke Beveridge

• Note: just like I was in last week’s Saints game, I’m tossing up between Saints line and Loss by 1-39. I’m going for the same play, but please St Kilda, please kick straight!

• Model says: Bulldogs by 18

-- Player Prop –

• The Saints concede the 2nd most DT points to centres in 2021, and most of the damage are done by players who are in and around the contest.

• Guthrie 138, Duncan 134, Swallow 130, Miller 119, Mitchell 128, Worpel 124, Shiels 119, Wines 129, Houston 127… you get the picture.

• The obvious answers are probably Bont, Macrae, and Treloar. I’m not going Treloar because he had his lowest CBA rate last week since round 2, and I want someone who gets his hands on the footy first. I’m all over Tom Liberatore in this game.

• I have Libba at a projected score of 97.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Saints +24.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)

- 1.5 Units – Tom Liberatore 88.5 DT @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

Odds are correct as of 22:45 - Friday 21st of May 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.