AFL Round 1 - SUN

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide

Staying away from this game. Similarly to the Adelaide v Geelong game, everyone just expects Port to smash the Roos here, and as we saw yesterday, Footy just doesn’t always work like that, especially in Round 1.

GWS v St Kilda

Another game we’re staying away from. We hate playing wet games, here, so we’re just going to sit out and observe.

West Coast v Gold Coast

  • Under Adam Simpson, West Coast are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their first home game of the season

  • Average result – Average win by 38 points

  • Average +/- of line – Cover by 16 points

  • Over is 5-2 in these games

  • Average total points 195, Median 201, average +/- of O/U = +19.21 points

  • Gold Coast are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS in Perth under Stewart Dew

  • Median losing margin = 54, Average losing margin = 38.5

Recommended Bets:

  • 1 Unit - West Coast -27.5 @ $2 (Ladbrokes)

  • 1 Unit - Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)

Player Props:

1 Unit – Karl Amon (PA) Over 75.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.87 (Pointsbet)

  • I’ve been reading that Karl Amon will get more midfield minutes this season. This might not necessarily mean he’ll be attending Centre Bounces (CBA’s), but it should mean that he’s around the contest more. Tom Rockliff out will only make this play stronger.

  • North conceded the 5th most points to midfielders last season

It looks like we’re being drip-fed player prop markets today, so I’ll post them as we go, on @TheTrendBettor.

Odds are correct as of 11:25 - Sunday 21st of March, 2021 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change.