AFL Round 1 - SAT

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Melbourne v Fremantle

  • Hard to look at head to head as Fremantle’s coach Justin Longmuire has only been at the helm for one season

  • Fremantle win 47-33 in last year’s game

  • Melbourne are 14-13 SU, 9-18 ATS as favourites at the MCG under Simon Goodwin

  • Average +/- of line = -13.8

  • Also hard to look at venue trends for Fremantle since they haven’t played at the G under Justin Longmuire

  • Note: We have Fremantle a 2 point better side than Melbourne, and although home ground advantage is usually around 10-12 points, Melbourne’s record at home makes me thing their home ground advantage isn’t that much. Even if it were, we’d have Fremantle +8 considering all things even. The fact that Melbourne don’t tend to utilize their home ground “advantage”, we like this even more.

Recommended Bet: 1.25 Unit – Fremantle +15.5 @ $2 (Ladbrokes)


Adelaide v Geelong

  • Nothing in this game. Think Geelong could absolutely pump them, but so does everyone else. Punting ain’t that easy… We’re staying away.

Essendon v Hawthorn

  • Just like Fremantle, it’s hard to go off trends as this is Ben Rutten’s first official year of coaching the Bombers. But since he’s been at the club since 2019, at least we can use these years as a guide.

  • Since 2017 (Worsfold’s first year without the top up players), Essendon are 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS against Hawthorn

  • Average absolute margin = 17.4

  • Max absolute margin 25

  • Since 2019, Essendon have been involved in 25 (out of 39) games that have been decided by 24 points or less

  • 2nd most in the league

  • Hawthorn – T-9th in this category in the same timeline.

  • Model says Essendon by 2 points

Recommended Bet: 1.25 Units – Either Team by Under 24.5 Points @ $1.73 (Topsport)


Brisbane v Sydney

  • No team has won more games by 1-39 in the last two seasons than Brisbane have (H&A only).

  • 23 from 39

  • No team has lost more games by 1-39 in the last two seasons than Sydney have (H&A only)

  • 23 from 39

  • Brisbane are 19-1 SU, 11-9 ATS at the Gabba since 2019 (H&A only)

  • 16 wins by 1-39

  • Sydney are 7-17 SU, 15-9 ATS away from the SCG since 2019 (H&A only)

  • 15 losses by 1-39

  • You’d think I’d like this bet more with the wet weather, but it’s actually kind of the opposite. Studies conducted by sports data analysts, and the conclusion was although weather does negatively impact scoring, it has next to no affect on the final absolute margin. Unfortunately, though, this isn’t how the bookies see it, meaning we get less value, here. Although I still like the bet, Brisbane’s bigger bodied (86.9kg averages vs 83.9) as well as experience (101.1 games vs 83.7) tend to out body opposition in the wet. Still a bet, but at a reduced stake, especially this early in the season.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Brisbane by 1-39 @ $2.02 (Topsport)



Player Props


1.5 Units – Blake Acres Over 85.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes)

  • Melbourne conceded the 2nd most fantasy points to Centres last season (74 – 92.5 after scaling)

  • Melbourne conceded the 2nd most fantasy points to top 3 Centres last season (92 – 115 after scaling)

  • After going through game by game, a lot of the high scores were by wingers / outside ball winners

  • Langford 80, Cutler 74, J Kelly 96, Cerra 97, Acres 79, Aish 70, R Clarke 100, B Hill 85, L Hunter 99, T Phillips 77, J Daicos 75, Higgins 77, Amon 78, Bailey 85, McCluggage 75, R Henderson 95, B Ellis 75, J Caddy 87, Menegola 106, Gaff 107, Sheed 93

  • Going from last week’s pre-season game against the Dogs, Melbourne conceded to 152 to Macrae, 100 to Lipinski, 87 to Hunter.

  • After coming back from injury last year, Blake Acres scored 83, 97, 79 and 108. Meaning the MINIMUM scaled score was 99.38.

  • This is most likely our biggest play for the week.

1 Unit – Sam Menegola Over 98.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet) 0.5 Units – Jordan Clark 20+ Disposals @ $2.70 (Ladbrokes)

  • No team gave up more fantasy points to any position than Adelaide did with Centres last year

  • 75 to centres (93.75 after scaling)

  • 97 to top 3 centres (121 after scaling)

  • Similarly to Melbourne, a lot of these players are outside players

  • K Lambert 90, Walsh 95, Setterfield 90, Whitfield 122, Menegola 90, L Hunter 99, T Phillips 83, A Hall 112, Z Merrett 138, T Kelly 95, Sheed 93, Cerra 88, Aish 82, McCluggage 105, Weller 95, B Ellis 85, Duursma 92

  • If Adelaide’s pre-season game is anything to go by, Adelaide couldn’t stop a nose bleed let alone opposition spread

  • Adelaide conceded 190 marks… ONE HUNDRED AND NINETY MARKS!!!!!

  • 15 Port players had 7+ marks

  • Adelaide conceded the 3rd most uncontested marks, while Geelong accumulated the most

1 Unit – Zach Merrett Over 30.5 Disposals @ $ 1.87 (Ladbrokes) 0.25 Units – Merrett Group A @ $3.75 (Ladbrokes)

  • Hawthorn conceded the most disposals in 2020

  • 319 per game – 399 after scaling

  • Hawthorn conceded the 3rd most fantasy points to top 3 centres in 2020

  • Zach Merrett has had 31+ disposals in 5 of his last 7 games against Hawthorn

Odds are correct as of 12:30 - Saturday 20th March, 2021 (AEDT). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.