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Collingwood are 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS against the Western Bulldogs since 2018
Wins of 35, 14, 9, and 52
Under is 4-0 in these games
145, 142, 155, and 120 (150 after 2020 adjustment)
Under is 13-6 in Collingwood games at the MCG since 2019
Average +/- of O/U = -12.9
Note: My gut instinct has told me the Bulldogs should be favourites in this game, and they’ve come from +5.5 to start favourites over the last few weeks. I think the value’s gone, and if anything, I’d be leaning towards Collingwood plus points. Have a bit of de je vu to last year’s round 1 game.
Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 164.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)
Collingwood conceded the most fantasy points to backmen in 2020 (59 – 74 after scaling), and the most points to top 3 backmen in 2020 (75 – 94)
2019 was not much different to 2020 as Collingwood were in the bottom 6 (top 6 conceded) in both categories.
There’s always a greater element of risk in Round 1 because you’ve only got last year to go from, but if Collingwood’s lone pre-season game was anything to go by – where they allowed Richmond backman Jayden Short to have 43 touches, 12 marks and a whopping 171 fantasy points - I expect backs to have a spike when coming up against the Pies.
Collingwood conceded 77+ (96+ adjusted) to 18 backs from their 20 games last year.
When it comes to Western Bulldogs backs, I’m only interested in one man. Maybe Bailey Williams on his day, but my eyes are purely on Caleb Daniel. The elite ball-user could have a big, big evening.
With the lack of Fantasy markets for Caleb Daniel across the board, my focus is shifted to disposals
Caleb Daniel had 20+ touches (25+ adjusted) in 11 of his 18 games in 2020.
And 24+ (30+ adjusted) in 5 of his 18.
Caleb Daniel has had 30, 35, and 20 (25 adjusted) in his last 3 games against Collingwood.
Official Over / Under’s haven’t come out yet, but I’m happy with these prices and I suspect they will come out at 24.5 anyway
Topsport have over 24.5 at $1.80
1 Unit – Caleb Daniel 25+ Disposals @ $1.91 (Sportsbet)
0.25 Units – Caleb Daniel 30+ Disposals @ $3.75 (Sportsbet/Pointsbet)
Odds are correct as of 06:50 - Friday 19th March, 2021. Odds are subject to change.