AFL Round 1 - Collingwood v Western Bulldogs

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  • Collingwood are 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS against the Western Bulldogs since 2018

  • Wins of 35, 14, 9, and 52

  • Under is 4-0 in these games

  • 145, 142, 155, and 120 (150 after 2020 adjustment)

  • Under is 13-6 in Collingwood games at the MCG since 2019

  • Average +/- of O/U = -12.9

Note: My gut instinct has told me the Bulldogs should be favourites in this game, and they’ve come from +5.5 to start favourites over the last few weeks. I think the value’s gone, and if anything, I’d be leaning towards Collingwood plus points. Have a bit of de je vu to last year’s round 1 game.


Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 164.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)


Player Prop:

  • Collingwood conceded the most fantasy points to backmen in 2020 (59 – 74 after scaling), and the most points to top 3 backmen in 2020 (75 – 94)

  • 2019 was not much different to 2020 as Collingwood were in the bottom 6 (top 6 conceded) in both categories.

  • There’s always a greater element of risk in Round 1 because you’ve only got last year to go from, but if Collingwood’s lone pre-season game was anything to go by – where they allowed Richmond backman Jayden Short to have 43 touches, 12 marks and a whopping 171 fantasy points - I expect backs to have a spike when coming up against the Pies.

  • Collingwood conceded 77+ (96+ adjusted) to 18 backs from their 20 games last year.

  • When it comes to Western Bulldogs backs, I’m only interested in one man. Maybe Bailey Williams on his day, but my eyes are purely on Caleb Daniel. The elite ball-user could have a big, big evening.

  • With the lack of Fantasy markets for Caleb Daniel across the board, my focus is shifted to disposals

  • Caleb Daniel had 20+ touches (25+ adjusted) in 11 of his 18 games in 2020.

  • And 24+ (30+ adjusted) in 5 of his 18.

  • Caleb Daniel has had 30, 35, and 20 (25 adjusted) in his last 3 games against Collingwood.

  • Official Over / Under’s haven’t come out yet, but I’m happy with these prices and I suspect they will come out at 24.5 anyway

  • Topsport have over 24.5 at $1.80

Recommended Bets:

1 Unit – Caleb Daniel 25+ Disposals @ $1.91 (Sportsbet)

0.25 Units – Caleb Daniel 30+ Disposals @ $3.75 (Sportsbet/Pointsbet)


Odds are correct as of 06:50 - Friday 19th March, 2021. Odds are subject to change.