AFL Round 1 2019 - Sat/Sun



Melbourne vs Port Adelaide – MCG

  • Over was 8-5 in Melbourne games played at the MCG in 2018

  • 7-3 in non-night games

  • Over was 21-14 in 35 non-night games at the MCG in 2018

  • Port Adelaide 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS at the MCG since 2016

  • Melbourne are 6-5 SU in their last 11 games as favourites by 20+ at the MCG.

  • Port Adelaide are 2-2 SU in their last 4 games as underdogs by 20+.

Recommended Bets:

0.5 Units - Over 180.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)

0.2 Units - Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $5.50 (Multiple Books)

Adelaide vs Hawthorn – Adelaide Oval

  • Over is 14-5 in Adelaide non-night games at Adelaide Oval since 2015

  • Over in the first game of the year at Adelaide Oval is 4-1.

  • Home teams in Round 1 games at Adelaide Oval are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS

  • Average Team Total Points = 132.5, Median = 136.5

  • Hawthorn are 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS in their 7 games at Adelaide Oval

  • 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS against Adelaide

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit Both Teams to Score 79+ Points @ $1.89 (Bet365)

Western Bulldogs vs Sydney

  • Over is 13-3 in the last 16 Sydney games at Marvel Stadium

  • Sydney are 15-3 SU, 13-5 ATS in their last 15 games at Marvel Stadium

  • 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS in 2018

  • Western Bulldogs are 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS against Sydney since 2015

  • 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS in Melbourne

  • Under is 5-1 in the last 6 games between these two sides

Lean: Sydney 1-39 @ $2.25 (Pointsbet)

Brisbane vs West Coast

  • Brisbane were 2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS at the Gabba in 2018

  • 1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS as underdogs

  • All but one loss was 1-39

  • Brisbane are 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS in their first game at the Gabba for the season

  • Last 6 losses have been 1-39

  • West Coast are 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against Brisbane

  • 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS at the Gabba. 3 by 1-39

  • West Coast were 9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS away from WA in 2018. 8 wins by 1-39

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – West Coast 1-39 @ $2.40 (Sportsbet)

St Kilda vs Gold Coast

  • St Kilda are 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS as favourites against interstate sides at Marvel Stadium under Alan Richardson

  • Average team total = 111, Median = 107.

  • Gold Coast are 2-3 SU, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games at Marvel Stadium.

  • Sorry, do I really have to do the rest of this game? Not much to look at here.

Lean: St Kilda Team Total Over 102.5 @ $1.89 (Bet365)


GWS Giants vs Essendon

  • GWS are 12-4-1 SU, 4-13 ATS at Spotless Stadium since 2017

  • 9 of the wins by 1-39

  • 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS against Essendon

  • GWS are 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS against Essendon since 2015

  • All 3 wins have been by 1-39

  • Essendon went 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS in interstate matches in 2018

Recommended Bet: 1 unit – Either Team by Under 24.5 Points @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)


Fremantle vs North Melbourne


  • Fremantle are 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS against North Melbourne since 2015

  • Fremantle went 7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS at Optus Stadium against non-WA teams in 2018

  • Conceded over 90.5 twice

  • North Melbourne were 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS in away interstate matches in 2018

  • Average team total points = 73.8, Median, 66.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – North Melbourne Team Total Points U90.5 @ $1.85 (Sportsbet)

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