AFL - Richmond v Geelong

  • It’s been a story of two eras between these two teams (under their current coaches)

  • Geelong were 6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS against Richmond from 2011 to 2016, and 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS since

  • Under is 10-4 in these games in total

  • Average +/- of O/U is -10.64 points

  • One of our favourite situational trends is in play here: Under is 52-24 in night games played at the MCG (excluding Round 1 games) since 2015

  • Average +/- of O/U is -9.99 points

  • Under is 28-7 in Richmond games under this criterion

  • Average +/- of O/U is =13.33 points

  • Under is 9-5 in Geelong games under this criterion

  • Average +/- of O/U is -7.14 points

  • The total's moved a little, but I've got Richmond 77-66 Geelong.


-- Player Prop –

  • If you haven’t noticed, we don’t really play too many Richmond players’ player props, and I think that’s more to the nature of their system. Players don’t go to low (for unders), but they also don’t go ham (for overs). Throw in the fact that they can tinker players’ positions at the flip of a hat (eg Pickett going into the midfield last week, Baker going forward in the last quarter), it’s a team I prefer to avoid.

  • Geelong on the other hand… a little bit more predictable…

  • They come up against a Richmond side who happily let teams chip the ball around without really going anywhere. Richmond concede the 5th most uncontested possessions in the league, 5th most disposals, and the 3rd most uncontested marks… And Dimma is perfectly happy with this.

  • I’m going to be focusing on two players here: Isaac Smith, and Tom Stewart. And here’s why…

  • Isaac Smith is the ONLY player in the league with 75+ uncontested possessions and under 20 contested possessions in the league… and here’s the craziest thing, he has 134 uncontested, 18 contested, which means he’s the most uncontested player in the league… BY FAR!. The kind of player who will thrive in games against Richmond.

  • Has scored 96+ in 5 of his 7 games this season

  • It killed me to fade him last week because I’m such a fan of him. Tom Stewart, I don’t think I’ve ever seen play a bad game. And if he gets 25 disposals 9 marks and 102 Fantasy Points against Sydney – who, bar Geelong, concede 2nd least disposals, the least uncontested possessions, and the least uncontested marks in the league – he’s not going to go *too* far below that.

  • Tom Stewart has been the highest scoring backman for Geelong in 5 of their 7 games – surpassed by Atkins twice.

  • The top scoring backman average 113.43 points against Richmond

  • Note: The DT o/u is a bit chalky at 102.5-104.5 between Ladbrokes and Pointsbet, so I’m going to pivot to disposals.

  • Stewart has had 25+ disposals in 5 of his 7 games this season

Recommended Bets:

  • 1.25 Unit – Under 153.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (TAB/Pointsbet)

  • 1.25 Units – Isaac Smith Over 89.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (Pointsbet)

  • 0.25 Units – Isaac Smith GROUP B Disposals (Short, Higgins, Menegola, Parfitt, Baker, Nank, Graham) @ $8 (TAB)

  • 1 Unit – Tom Stewart 25+ Disposals @ $1.85 (Bet365)


Odds are correct as of 13:15 – Friday 7th May 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.