AFL Round 7
Geelong v Collingwood (AFL)
Under is 5-1 in Collingwood games this season
Average 106 (lowest in the league), Median 115
Over is 4-2 in Geelong games this season
Average 140 (highest in the league), Median 149
Under is 9-0 in games between these two teams since 2014
Average 150 (120), Median 159 (127.2)
Geelong are 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS against Collingwood since 2016
All games have been decided by 30 points or less
The obvious trend here is obviously the Under… But the total is really low. Am I scared to take on an o/u of 100~? Damn right I am… You can’t just blindly bet something without considering the number, and I don’t feel comfortable betting Under 100.5. Best to steer clear here, I think.
Model says: Collingwood by 1
In his last 4 games against Geelong, Tay Adams has scored 112, 124, 132, and 148 Fantasy Points. 80% = 90, 99, 106, and 118. He has accumulated 9, 12, 12, and 8 tackles in these games. With Perth having “torrential” rain in the last 24 hours, this is the perfect spot to play Tay Adams.
Collingwood allow the second-most fantasy points to defenders this season, and if they allow Geelong to chip around at Half-Back, like they have in the last few weeks with:
Hawthorn (Sicily 114, Smith (HB/Wing) 99, Morrison 81, Hardwick 73),
Essendon (Ridley 79, Hurley 71, Saad 67)
GWS (Corr 76, Haynes 70, Shaw 65, Williams 64)
Don’t be surprised if Mark O’Connor has a similar game to what he had against Melbourne, where he had 20 disposals, 14 marks, and 102 Fantasy points.
1.5 Units – Tay Adams Over 84.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
1 Unit – Mark O’Connor Over 51.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (BetEasy)
0.5 Units – Tay Adams most tackles (vs Parfitt, Selwood, Wills, Guthrie, Dahlhaus, Maynard, Grundy) @ $4.75 (BetEasy)
Roosters v Raiders (NRL)
Roosters are 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS against the Raiders since 2016
All games have been decided by 6 points or less
Under is 6-2 in games between these two teams since 2014
Average 37.63, Median 40
Roosters are 10-1 SU, 10-1 ATS at the SCG since 2019
Average result = win by 23.8 points… SCARY!
The Roosters concede an average of 11 points at the SCG
6 points or less 6 times
12 points or less 10 times
Under is 8-2 in the last 10 Raiders games away from GIO Stadium
Average 30.8, Median 27
Recommended Bet: No play in this game. A lot of contradicting trends in this game so I'm not going to force anything. Hopefully I could help find you a winner!
Odds are subject to change. Odds are correct as of 17:45 16/07/2020. Please gamble responsibly!