AFL/NRL Thurs 16/07/2020

AFL Round 7

Geelong v Collingwood (AFL)

  • Under is 5-1 in Collingwood games this season

  • Average 106 (lowest in the league), Median 115

  • Over is 4-2 in Geelong games this season

  • Average 140 (highest in the league), Median 149

  • Under is 9-0 in games between these two teams since 2014

  • Average 150 (120), Median 159 (127.2)

  • Geelong are 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS against Collingwood since 2016

  • All games have been decided by 30 points or less

  • The obvious trend here is obviously the Under… But the total is really low. Am I scared to take on an o/u of 100~? Damn right I am… You can’t just blindly bet something without considering the number, and I don’t feel comfortable betting Under 100.5. Best to steer clear here, I think.

  • Model says: Collingwood by 1

  • In his last 4 games against Geelong, Tay Adams has scored 112, 124, 132, and 148 Fantasy Points. 80% = 90, 99, 106, and 118. He has accumulated 9, 12, 12, and 8 tackles in these games. With Perth having “torrential” rain in the last 24 hours, this is the perfect spot to play Tay Adams.

Collingwood allow the second-most fantasy points to defenders this season, and if they allow Geelong to chip around at Half-Back, like they have in the last few weeks with:

  • Hawthorn (Sicily 114, Smith (HB/Wing) 99, Morrison 81, Hardwick 73),

  • Essendon (Ridley 79, Hurley 71, Saad 67)

  • GWS (Corr 76, Haynes 70, Shaw 65, Williams 64)

Don’t be surprised if Mark O’Connor has a similar game to what he had against Melbourne, where he had 20 disposals, 14 marks, and 102 Fantasy points.


Recommended Bets:

  • 1.5 Units – Tay Adams Over 84.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)

  • 1 Unit – Mark O’Connor Over 51.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.88 (BetEasy)

  • 0.5 Units – Tay Adams most tackles (vs Parfitt, Selwood, Wills, Guthrie, Dahlhaus, Maynard, Grundy) @ $4.75 (BetEasy)

Roosters v Raiders (NRL)

  • Roosters are 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS against the Raiders since 2016

  • All games have been decided by 6 points or less

  • Under is 6-2 in games between these two teams since 2014

  • Average 37.63, Median 40

  • Roosters are 10-1 SU, 10-1 ATS at the SCG since 2019

  • Average result = win by 23.8 points… SCARY!

  • The Roosters concede an average of 11 points at the SCG

  • 6 points or less 6 times

  • 12 points or less 10 times

  • Under is 8-2 in the last 10 Raiders games away from GIO Stadium

  • Average 30.8, Median 27

Recommended Bet: No play in this game. A lot of contradicting trends in this game so I'm not going to force anything. Hopefully I could help find you a winner!

Odds are subject to change. Odds are correct as of 17:45 16/07/2020. Please gamble responsibly!

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