AFL/NRL - Sun 19/07/2020

Carlton v Port Adelaide

- Don’t look now, but Carlton are 9-8 SU, 11-6 ATS since David Teague took over last season

o Have only lost by more than 5 goals once (Round 23 v Geelong, 68 points)

- Carlton have different coaches, but Port Adelaide are 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS in their games against Carlton since 2018

o Wins of 21 and 16

- Model says: Port Adelaide by 11

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Port Adelaide by 1-39 @ $1.97* (TopSport)

Hawthorn v Melbourne

- Since 2017, the games have been split 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS

- Under is 3-1 in games between these two teams since 2017

o Average 169 (135.2), Median 169 (135.2)

- Both teams allow the other teams to chip the ball around the back-half of the ground, giving up the most (Melbourne) and 3rd most (Hawthorn) fantasy points to backmen.

- Defenders’ touches (vs season averages) - against Hawthorn

o Darcy Moore 21 (13.9)

o. Nick Haynes 21 (18.7), Harry Perrymann 28, Heath Shaw 24 (15.7)

o Jasper Pittard 24 (15.3), Josh Walker 17 (9.8)

o Bachar Houli 25 (22.8), Nick Vlastuin 22 (13.3), Dylan Grimes 18 (10.3)

- Steven May as had 20 and 18 disposals in his last 2 games

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Steven May 15+ Disposals @ $1.83 (BetEasy) ($1.80 @ Sportsbet, also)

- 0.5 Units – Steven May 20+ Disposals @ $5 (BetEasy)

Fremantle v West Coast

- Fremantle have been impressive for how young they are. They are 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS this season, and have been competitive in all of their games, with their biggest losing margin being 29 points

- West Coast have been more enigmatic, either winning by 4+ goals, or losing by 4+ goals; nothing in between, this year (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS)

- Model play here:

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Fremantle +20.5 @ $1.90* (Sportsbet)

- 0.5 Units – Fremantle win @ $3.40* (Multiple Books)

Warriors v Sharks (NRL)

- Since the COVID-19 break, the Sharks have averaged 26.0 team points

- Over is 7-0 in Sharks games since the break

o Average 51.71, Median 46

- Since the COVID-19 break, the Warriors have conceded an average of 24.86 team points

o Median 26

- These two teams have played in Australia once since 2017

o Sharks beat Warriors 42-16 at Shark Park

- The Warriors have conceded the 2nd most tries to the #2 position this season (8)

- Sharks winger, Sione Katoa has scored the equal 4th most tries this season (8)

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Sione Katoa Anytime Try Scorer @ $2 (Ladbrokes)

- 1 Unit – Sharks o24.5 team total points @ $1.95 (Ladbrokes)

Panthers v Cowboys

- Over is 8-1 in Cowboys games this season

o Average 49.78 (most in the league), Median 49, Min 40

- Under is 6-3 in Panthers games this season

o Average 39.11, Median 32.

- Low scoring team vs a high scoring team, usually I’d leave this alone. But after seeing how easily points were being scored in the Sharks v Panthers game last week, don’t be surprised if you see something similar.

- The Cowboys have conceded 11 (what the hell!?) tries to the #5 position this season.

o Panthers’ Winger/Centre, Brent Naden has scored 4 tries in 5 games, including in both games where he started on the wing.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Over 44.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (TopSport/Ladbrokes)

- 1 Unit – Brent Naden Anytime Try Scorer @ $1.65 (TopSport)

* Indicates that the bet was posted on Twitter prior to posting this article

Odds are correct as of 12:55 19/07/2020. Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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