The Trend BettorAFL/NRL - Sun 12/07/2020
Port Adelaide v GWS
Since 2016, the Giants are 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS against Port Adelaide
Winning margins of 86, 19, 31, 22, and 1
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two teams
Average 145 (116), Median 138.5 (110.8)
The obvious trend in terms of head to head or lines is GWS, but the model disagrees; which suggests that the Power are a great bet here. We’re going to leave that alone.
Under is 12-5 in Giants games away from Giants Stadium and ACT since 2019
Average 150 (120), Median 156 (124.8)
Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 124.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)
Richmond v Sydney
- Leaving this one alone due to the bulk changes to the Richmond side. Strong chance of a player prop on Twitter on gameday.
Carlton v Western Bulldogs
Carlton are 1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS against the Bulldogs since 2018
21L, 17L, 44W, 3L
Under is 6-1 in games between these two teams
Average 144 (115.2), Median 137 (109.6)
Only thing stopping me from playing the “Under”, is that the one “Over” in that stat is the only game between Luke Beveridge and David Teague – 203 total points scored.
Model play: Model really likes Carlton, here. Carlton by 7
Recommended Bets:
- 1 Unit – Carlton +11.5 @ $1.91 (BetEasy)
- 0.5 Units – Carlton ML @ $2.50 (Multiple Bookmakers)
Knights v Eels (NRL)
The Knights have conceded the most tries to starting Half-Backs in the league (4)
Eels’ replacement Half-Back, Jai Field, scored in his only game this season, last week
Recommended Bet: 0.25 Units – Jai Field Anytime Try Scorer @ $5 (Sportsbet)
Dragons v Sea-Eagles
Since the Dragons threw a few magnets around after their 22-2 loss to the Bulldogs, the Dragons have impressed, going 2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS
Under is 6-2 in Dragons’ games this season
Average 36.25, Median 38
Under is 7-1 in Sea-Eagles games this season
Average 32.25, Median 30.5
With Tommy Turbo still on the sidelines with a hamstring injury, the Sea-Eagles’ scoring opportunities will continue to be crippled.
Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 37.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)
Odds are correct as of 15:45 11/07/2020. Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly!