AFL/NRL - Sun 12/07/2020

Port Adelaide v GWS

  • Since 2016, the Giants are 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS against Port Adelaide

  • Winning margins of 86, 19, 31, 22, and 1

  • Under is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two teams

  • Average 145 (116), Median 138.5 (110.8)

  • The obvious trend in terms of head to head or lines is GWS, but the model disagrees; which suggests that the Power are a great bet here. We’re going to leave that alone.

  • Under is 12-5 in Giants games away from Giants Stadium and ACT since 2019

  • Average 150 (120), Median 156 (124.8)

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 124.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)

Richmond v Sydney

- Leaving this one alone due to the bulk changes to the Richmond side. Strong chance of a player prop on Twitter on gameday.

Carlton v Western Bulldogs

  • Carlton are 1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS against the Bulldogs since 2018

  • 21L, 17L, 44W, 3L

  • Under is 6-1 in games between these two teams

  • Average 144 (115.2), Median 137 (109.6)

  • Only thing stopping me from playing the “Under”, is that the one “Over” in that stat is the only game between Luke Beveridge and David Teague – 203 total points scored.

  • Model play: Model really likes Carlton, here. Carlton by 7

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Carlton +11.5 @ $1.91 (BetEasy)

- 0.5 Units – Carlton ML @ $2.50 (Multiple Bookmakers)

Knights v Eels (NRL)

  • The Knights have conceded the most tries to starting Half-Backs in the league (4)

  • Eels’ replacement Half-Back, Jai Field, scored in his only game this season, last week

Recommended Bet: 0.25 Units – Jai Field Anytime Try Scorer @ $5 (Sportsbet)

Dragons v Sea-Eagles

  • Since the Dragons threw a few magnets around after their 22-2 loss to the Bulldogs, the Dragons have impressed, going 2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS

  • Under is 6-2 in Dragons’ games this season

  • Average 36.25, Median 38

  • Under is 7-1 in Sea-Eagles games this season

  • Average 32.25, Median 30.5

  • With Tommy Turbo still on the sidelines with a hamstring injury, the Sea-Eagles’ scoring opportunities will continue to be crippled.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 37.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

Odds are correct as of 15:45 11/07/2020. Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly!

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