AFL/NRL - Sat/Sun

Saturday

Carlton v Melbourne (AFL)

  • Jack Viney attended 76% of center bounces in the pre-season, and 78% in Round 1, and has accumulated 25, 33, and 34 touches in the three games. Attack this area.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Viney over 21.5 disposals @ $1.85 (Bet365)

Knights v Storm (NRL)

  • Under is 7-0 in the last 7 Storm games

  • Average 25.14, Median 22

  • Under is 20-11 in Storm games away from AAMI Park

  • Average 34.19, Median 34

  • Although Newcastle have been great in attack (27.5 ppg), they’ve also been stingy in defence. I don’t think Melbourne will leak points here, favouring a lower scoring game.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 36.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)

Sunday

GWS v North Melbourne

  • GWS are 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS against North since 2016

  • Under is 3-1

  • Over is 9-1 at Giants Stadium since 2019

  • Average 177 (-20% = 141.6), Median 174 (139.2)

  • Don’t love anything in this game… yet. May have a big player prop if we get what we want.

Check Twitter (@TheTrendBettor) tomorrow.

Sydney v Essendon

  • Sydney are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS against Essendon at the SCG

  • Sydney are 5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games at the SCG

  • Essendon were 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS in interstate games as underdogs in 2019

  • This is a bit of a “Model” play. In 2019, our model suggested that Sydney were one of the “unluckiest” sides in terms of performance vs results, whereas Essendon were on the other end of the scale. While Essendon made finals and Sydney didn’t, we believe Sydney is the superior team by quite some distance.

Recommended Bet: 2 Units – Sydney -3.5 @ $1.91 (BetEasy)

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

- No play here, lean Dogs 1-39

NRL

Dragons v Sharks

  • Over is 3-1 in Sharks games this season

  • Average 37, Median 41

  • Over is 12-8 in Dragons games as underdogs since 2018

  • Average 45.65, Median 48.5

  • Over is 20-10 in Sharks games as favourites since 2018

  • Average 42.43, Median 41.5

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Over 38.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (BetEasy/TopSport)

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