AFL/NRL - Sat 4th July, 2020

West Coast v Sydney

  • West Coast are 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS against Sydney since 2018

  • Sydney are 5-10 SU, 10-5 ATS as underdogs since 2019

  • Model play: Admittedly, our model seems to overrate the Swans year in, year out; but the model suggests that the Swans should be around even money.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Sydney +9.5 @ $2.00 (Ladbrokes)

Geelong v Gold Coast

  • No Play, Lean Suns +20.5

  • May have a player prop on gameday via @TheTrendBettor on Twitter


Brisbane v Port Adelaide

  • Port Adelaide are 3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS against Brisbane since 2017

  • Over is 3-2. Average 190, Median 197

  • Brisbane are 8-4 SU, 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games

  • Model play: Yes, Port have had an “easy” schedule, but the model suggests that they have been the best team this year, by far! Whilst take out last week’s demolition of Adelaide, the Lions are the 7th best team so far.

Recommended Bets:

- 2 Units – Port Adelaide +1.5 @ $2.00 (Ladbrokes)

- 1 Unit – Over 129.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne

  • Dating all the way back to 2015, all 8 of the games between these two teams have been decided by 25 points or less. 6 by 16 or less.

  • Under is 6-2 between these two sides, with highly volatile outcomes. 2 with 200+, and 2 with < 110.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Either Team by Under 19.5 @ $1.80 (Sportsbet/TAB)

Titans v Sharks (NRL)

  • Titans have given the tied-most tries to the #2 starting position in the league (7)

  • Sharks’ Winger (#2), Sione Katoa has scored the 2nd most tries in 2020 (8)

Recommended Bets:

  • 1.5 Units – Sione Katoa Anytime Try Scorer @ $1.80 (Ladbrokes)

  • 0.5 Units – Sione Katoa to score 2+ Tries @ $4.50 (Ladbrokes)

Odds are correct as of 15:45, 3rd of July 2020. Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly!

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