AFL/NRL - Sat 18/07/2020

GWS Giants v Brisbane

- The Giants are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS at Giants Stadium since 2019

- Over is 11-2 in Giants games played at Giants Stadium since 2019

o 2019 Average = 177 (141.6), Median 169 (135.2)

o 2020 Average = 145, Median 136

- Since 2018, the Giants are 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS against the Lions

o 34W, 27W, 20L, 3W

- The Lions are 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS as underdogs since 2019

- In terms of head to head / lines, the trends are telling us to back the Giants, but the model disagrees, telling us that the Lions are a good bet. Staying away from the sides here.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Over 131.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)

Sydney v Gold Coast

- The Swans have been underdogs at the SCG to a grand total of 5 teams in the last 6 seasons: GWS (3 times), Hawthorn, Essendon, Collingwood, and Geelong. Gold Coast definitely are not in that mould. But here’s the tricky thing about trends; it doesn’t consider that this is probably the worst Sydney 22 for as long as we can remember. When a team is severely crippled with injuries, I don’t trust trends or my database. All it is, is a big indication to stay away. There is a real chance that we don’t bet Sydney games for quite a while.

- The last time these two played, Jake Lloyd was kept to just 16 touches – his lowest possession tally in his lowest possession tally since 2016 (except for Round 10 2017, where he got injured in the opening minutes against Hawthorn). With Kennedy and Heeney out, I’d imagine extra focus will be put into the Half-Back accumulator – a player whose OVER’s we backed last week.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit - Jake Lloyd Under 24.5 Disposals @ $2 (TopSport)

Richmond v North Melbourne

- The same rule mentioned above about Sydney, could easily be applied to the Tigers here, also. I apologise for the lack of trends, and therefore recommended bets (that aren’t player props), but that’s just what today’s slate entails… it’s just how it’s panned out.

- Keep an eye out for a different sort of preview later, for this game.

Dragons v Bulldogs (NRL)

- Remember when these two teams played on Queens Birthday some six weeks ago (Bulldogs won by 20 points)? The Dragons were only 1.5-points favourites… Now they’re 9.5! What a drastic change in fortune these two clubs have had since then.

- The last 4 games between these two teams have been anything but close

o Bulldogs by 38, Dragons by 36, Dragons by 24, Bulldogs by 20.

- Since “that” game, the Dragons have gone 3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS.

- The Bulldogs have gone 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS with an average losing margin of 20 points.

- I never thought I’d be betting the Dragons at such a short price in 2020, but this could get ugly if they continue their run of form.

- The Bulldogs have conceded the most tries to starting Wingers (17!).

- This could be a big day for Dragons’ Winger, Mikaele Ravalawa, who has scored 6 tries already this season.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Dragons -10 @ $1.95 (TopSport)

- 1 Unit - Mikaele Ravalawa Anytime Try Scorer @ $1.95 (Bet365)

- 0.5 Units - Mikaele Ravalawa To Score 2+ Tries @ $6.50 (Bet365)

Rabbitohs v Knights (NRL)

- Head to head trends can practically be thrown away with one coach in his first year, and the other being in his second year at his club

- This line doesn’t make sense to me, as I think the Rabbitohs are a little bit “fool’s gold” at the moment. Yes, they’ve won 4 of their last 5, but they’ve beaten the Titans, Warriors, Bulldogs and Wests Tigers. The Rabbitohs are 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS against top 8 teams this season. The “1” is their win against the Tigers, whose top 8 status is questionable.

- The Knights have played 5 top-8 teams: Wests Tigers, Panthers, Raiders, Storm, and the Eels, and are 3-2 SU, 2-2-1 ATS against these side.

- With Latrell Mitchell and Campbell Graham out, this Souths side looks a little unsettled.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit - Knights to win @ $1.85 (Bet365)

Sea-Eagles v Eels (NRL)

- Not only has the Sea-Eagles offense evaporated ever since Tom Trbojevic pulled his hamstring, but so has their defence; and if they don’t change it quickly, so will their season.

- Since Trbojevic’s injury, Manly have averaged 12.67 team points, conceding 29.33 per game. Compare this to the 22.66 for, and 14.33 against before the injury since the COVID-19 break.

- Athough the table-leading Eels’ attack has been quite enigmatic – scoring 34+ just as many times as 10 or less (3) – the one constant is their defence. They’ve conceded only 96 points across their 9 games.

o Have conceded under 12 points in 6 of their 9 games

o Only teams to score more are Roosters 24, Raiders 24, and Sea-Eagles 16 (with Trbojevic)

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Sea-Eagles Under 14.5 Team Points @ $1.85 (Pointsbet)

Odds are correct as of 13:15 18/07/2020. Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly

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