AFL/NRL Sat 11/07/2020

Updated: Jul 11

Fremantle v St Kilda

  • All 5 of Fremantle’s games have been decided by 5 goals or less this season

  • Losing 4 of them

  • All 6 of St Kilda’s wins (from 11 games) under Brett Ratten have been by 1-39

  • Model play: Saints by 16

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – St Kilda 1-39 @ $1.92 (BetEasy)

West Coast v Adelaide

- Will likely have a player prop up on Twitter on Saturday afternoon.

Melbourne v Gold Coast

- Don’t love anything here, staying away. Maybe a player prop, but doubtful.

- Lean on Gold Coast head to head @ $2.25

Essendon v North Melbourne

  • Dating back to 2015, the margins between these two teams have been 11, 25, 14, 27, 17, 58, and 5.

  • Average 22.43, Median 17

  • Model says: Essendon by 7

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Either Team by 19 points or less @ $1.85 (TAB)

Sharks v Panthers (NRL)

  • These two teams couldn’t be any more different

  • Over is 7-1 in Sharks games this season

  • Average 43, Median 43.5

  • Average margin in Sharks games this season is 11.5

  • Only 3 by single digits

  • Under is 6-2 in Panthers games this season

  • Average 34, Median 31.5

  • Average margin in Panthers games this season is 8.

  • 7 of the 8 games have been by 7 points or less

I don’t have a recommended bet for you in this one, but hopefully I have provided you with some key info when selecting a play. Lean on “Either Team by Under...” bets this game.

Broncos v Bulldogs (NRL)

  • Complete stay away game for me this one in regards to picking a winner. Both sides are very ordinary and its hard to confidently back one side.

  • If I were to pick a side, it would be the Broncos. Purely on the basis that the Broncos’ players ran the show at training this week. I get the sense that the players haven’t been playing for their coach, but they may play for themselves / each other. This could go two ways, but I reckon they may be rejuvenated.

  • In terms of try scoring, the wings are in full-play here. The Bulldogs have conceded the most tries to the starting Wing positions (7 to #2, 7 to #5) and the Broncos have conceded the tied-second most tries out wide (6, 6). Lookout for teenage Broncos #5 Xavier Coates, who has scored 4 tries in his 4 games this season.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Xavier Coates Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.10 (BetEasy)


Raiders v Storm (NRL)

- Don’t love anything in this game. Lean to the Under.

Enjoy your Saturday!

Odds are correct as of 19:15 10/07/2020. Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly!

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