AFL/NRL Round 23, Sunday

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide

  • Over is 5-0 in the last 5 Bulldogs games

  • Average 185, Median 179

  • Since round 9, Over is 5-1 in Adelaide games away from Adelaide Oval

  • Average 175, Median 174

Notes: In order to make finals, the first step for Adelaide is to win by over roughly 15 goals. They’ll know this so they won’t settle for a close victory. Alternatively, if finals are looking unlikely late in the game, I expect the Dogs to kick away. Either way, I love the overs here.

Recommended Bets:

  • 2u– Over 161.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Pointsbet)

  • 0.5u – Both Teams to Score 90+ @ $9 (TAB)

Richmond v Brisbane

No Bet

Port Adelaide v Fremantle

No trends here, but that doesn’t mean I don’t have a play. This one is really from left field, but bare with me. In order to make the finals, Port Adelaide need a few things to go right. Firstly, they need Adelaide to win. Secondly they need to win by more than what Adelaide beat (should they beat) the Bulldogs by. And thirdly, like Adelaide, they need to win by more than roughly 15 goals.

If the Bulldogs win, this game is effectively a dead-rubber and I wouldn’t be touching it for a number of reasons: Port Adelaide will know that they are out of the finals hunt, coming into this game with absolutely zero motivation; and despite the common belief of teams finding new energy with an interim coach, don’t be surprised if the Dockers have mentally checked out. Go back to your schooling days – it’s the last day of the year, and you’ve got a substitute teacher, I mean, who gives a s**t, right? That’s Freo right now…

BUT… let’s say Adelaide win (unless it’s by 200+), you can’t help but like Port Adelaide’s line a lot (and I mean A LOT!) more. This theory is called a correlated parlay/multi, where if leg 1 wins, it increases the chances of leg 2 winning. If Adelaide lose to begin with, well then that’s just too bad, so be it, I wouldn’t like Port Adelaide’s line anyway. But if we can get past the first hurdle, this presents extreme value.

Here goes nothin’…

Recommended Bet: 1u Adelaide ML & Port Adelaide -20.5 @ $6.39 (Bet365/BetEasy)

Raiders v Sea Eagles (NRL)

  • 7 of the 9 games at GIO Stadium have been decided by 8 points or less this season

  • 9 of the 12 Manly have played as underdogs have been decided by 10 points or less this season

  • 4 of the last 5 games between these two teams have been decided by 8 points or less

Recommended Bet: 2u @ Either Team by Under 10.5 Points @ $1.86 (Pointsbet)

Odds are correct as of 07:05, 25th of August 2019. Odds are subject to change.