The Trend BettorAFL/NRL - Fri 17/07/2020
Essendon v Western Bulldogs (AFL)
Western Bulldogs are 5-0 SU, 1-4 ATS against Essendon since 2015
Margins of 87, 40, 30, 21, and 104
All 5 of Essendon’s games have been decided by 15 points or less this season
Not much to see here guys. Trends are telling us to go with the Bulldogs, the model is telling us the Bombers will win, so steering clear of the line/total in this one is the best bet.
With Stringer, Heppell, and now Shiels out of the midfield, it’s time to see Darcy Parish shine. He attended a season-high 67% Centre-Bounce Attendances (CBA’s) last week, and I don’t expect that to drop with the tools (or lack-thereof) the Bombers have at their possession. Bookmakers can often be slow, or don’t adjust enough when a player gets a new role. The first week almost always provides us with the greatest opportunity.
Parish had 21 disposals last week vs North Melbourne
When you think of Mitch Wallis, “goals” isn’t exactly the first thing that springs to mind, but the former midfielder has a knack of scoring a goal or two a game. Since 2018, Wallis has played 34 games, has kicked 34 goals, and has kicked at least one goal in 27 of them (79.41%). To compare, Eddie Betts has played 44 games within the same period, and has kicked at least one goal in 36 games (81.2%). Although Betts has kicked far more goals (75), Wallis makes the most of his limited opportunities, kicking 34.10. Don’t expect him to kick a bag, but he’ll get an opportunity or two, and we’re backing him to make the most of them.
Recommended Bets:
- 1.5 Units - Darcy Parish 20+ Disposals @ $2.80 (Sportsbet)
- 1 Unit – Mitch Wallis Anytime Goal Scorer @ $1.72 (Bet365)
- 0.5 Units – Darcy Parish Most Disposals (Group B vs Bont, Daniel, Lipinski, Johannisen, McKenna, Langford, D Smith) @ $7 (Sportsbet)
Storm v Titans (NRL)
Storm are 4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS against the Titans since 2017
Wins of 14, 2, 20, 16
Storm are 21-5 SU, 9-16-1 ATS when favourites of 12.5 or more since 2013
11-2 SU, 5-8 ATS when favourites of 16.5 or more
I can’t believe I’m doing this, but…
Recommended Bet: I’m happy to wait this out a little bit for a better number. But you probably know what the play is.
Wests Tigers v Broncos (NRL)
Don’t love anything in this game in terms of line/totals
Coming off a 2-try performance last week, Broncos’ Winger Jamayne Isaako is a strong chance to find the try line against a Tigers team that has conceded the 2nd most tries to the #2 wing position.
Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try Scorer @ $3.15 (TopSport)
Odds are subject to change. Odds are correct as of 13:30 17/07/2020. Please gamble responsibly!