AFL/NRL - Fri 17/07/2020

Essendon v Western Bulldogs (AFL)

• Western Bulldogs are 5-0 SU, 1-4 ATS against Essendon since 2015

• Margins of 87, 40, 30, 21, and 104

• All 5 of Essendon’s games have been decided by 15 points or less this season

• Not much to see here guys. Trends are telling us to go with the Bulldogs, the model is telling us the Bombers will win, so steering clear of the line/total in this one is the best bet.

• With Stringer, Heppell, and now Shiels out of the midfield, it’s time to see Darcy Parish shine. He attended a season-high 67% Centre-Bounce Attendances (CBA’s) last week, and I don’t expect that to drop with the tools (or lack-thereof) the Bombers have at their possession. Bookmakers can often be slow, or don’t adjust enough when a player gets a new role. The first week almost always provides us with the greatest opportunity.

• Parish had 21 disposals last week vs North Melbourne

• When you think of Mitch Wallis, “goals” isn’t exactly the first thing that springs to mind, but the former midfielder has a knack of scoring a goal or two a game. Since 2018, Wallis has played 34 games, has kicked 34 goals, and has kicked at least one goal in 27 of them (79.41%). To compare, Eddie Betts has played 44 games within the same period, and has kicked at least one goal in 36 games (81.2%). Although Betts has kicked far more goals (75), Wallis makes the most of his limited opportunities, kicking 34.10. Don’t expect him to kick a bag, but he’ll get an opportunity or two, and we’re backing him to make the most of them.

Recommended Bets:

- 1.5 Units - Darcy Parish 20+ Disposals @ $2.80 (Sportsbet)

- 1 Unit – Mitch Wallis Anytime Goal Scorer @ $1.72 (Bet365)

- 0.5 Units – Darcy Parish Most Disposals (Group B vs Bont, Daniel, Lipinski, Johannisen, McKenna, Langford, D Smith) @ $7 (Sportsbet)

Storm v Titans (NRL)

• Storm are 4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS against the Titans since 2017

• Wins of 14, 2, 20, 16

• Storm are 21-5 SU, 9-16-1 ATS when favourites of 12.5 or more since 2013

• 11-2 SU, 5-8 ATS when favourites of 16.5 or more

• I can’t believe I’m doing this, but…

Recommended Bet: I’m happy to wait this out a little bit for a better number. But you probably know what the play is.

Wests Tigers v Broncos (NRL)

• Don’t love anything in this game in terms of line/totals

• Coming off a 2-try performance last week, Broncos’ Winger Jamayne Isaako is a strong chance to find the try line against a Tigers team that has conceded the 2nd most tries to the #2 wing position.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try Scorer @ $3.15 (TopSport)

Odds are subject to change. Odds are correct as of 13:30 17/07/2020. Please gamble responsibly!