AFL/NRL - 10/07/2020

Just a heads up; with the AFL predominately being played in “hubs” in the next month or two, it makes it extremely harder to find trends for games, as “venue” can all of a sudden go from a constant, to an irrelevant factor. For example, the total points scored trends for Collingwood vs Hawthorn (which is always played at the MCG) becomes quite irrelevant with it being played at a completely different venue. If something is obviously trending, of course we will bet it as it would be naïve to simply ignore it, but with the hubs in play; you will most likely see more “model” plays, as well as player props. Anyway, let’s get on with it…

Collingwood v Hawthorn (AFL)

  • Tom Mitchell has racked up 54, 35, 50 disposals against his 3 games against Collingwood, while playing for Hawthorn

  • Hawthorn have given up the 2nd most Fantasy Points to Backmen in 2020, allowing them to chip the ball around. We saw Essendon sit back last week, now let’s see if Maynard can take advantage of it again this week.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Tom Mitchell o23.5 Disposals @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)*

- 1 Unit – Brayden Maynard o20.5 Disposals @ $1.80 (Sportsbet)*

- 0.5 Units – Tom Mitchell 30+ Disposals @ $6.50 (Pointsbet)*

Titans v Warriors (NRL)

  • Anthony Don has scored in 3 of his last 4 games against the Warriors

  • Both teams have conceded the tied-most tries to the starting #2 starting position (7 tries)

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Anthony Don Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.50 (Ladbrokes)

Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers (NRL)

  • Over is 5-3 in Tigers games this season

  • Average 43.25, Median 42

  • Over is 4-4 in Rabbitohs games this season

  • A verage 39.25, Median 40

  • Over is 9-8 at Bankwest Stadium this season

  • Average 37.35, Median 38

  • 24 of the 28 tries that the Tigers have conceded in 2020, have been scored by the oppositions’ starting back 7. This provides a huge opportunity for Rabbitohs #5, Alex Johnston; who has scored in each of his last 5 games.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit – Over 36.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Ladbrokes)*

- 1 Unit – Alex Johnston Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)

* indicates that the bets were posted on Twitter on Friday afternoon.

Odds are correct as of 16:45 10/07/2020 AEST. Odds are subject to change. Gamble responsibly.

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