AFL/NRL - 05/07/2020

AFL & NRL – 2nd & 3rd July 2020

St Kilda v Carlton

- Won’t be too many historical trends as these two teams have relatively new coaches

- St Kilda have averaged 78.33 points at Marvel Stadium this season

o 54, 88, 93

- Carlton have conceded an average of 71.75 points this season

o 105, 54, 77, and 51

- St Kilda had 8 shots on goal from insider 25m last week. No wonder why they kicked 15.3

- Expect them to get plenty of looks at goal… especially with all of the recent “state of the game” chatter we’ve heard all week (insert “eyes emoji” here).

- You may think we’re just “chasing our losses” on Marc Murphy after he ensured our u20.5 disposals bet last week was a loser with his 21 disposals, but I still like the spot and I would sure play it again. Granted Murphy played very well for his 21 disposals, but if he has to play “that” well to gather 21 touches, I’ll bet it again and again considering his recent change of role.

- With J Weitering doing a great job holding down the big men, this leaves a great opportunity for the stk smalls. Also, with the AFL looking to focus on rewarding "holding the ball", Butler could be the beneficiary, has the most tackles inside 50 in the league (3 / per game).

Recommended Bets:

- 1u STK o66.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.89 (Bet365)

- 1u Marc Murphy u20.5 Disposals @ $1.88 (TopSport)

- 0.5u Dan Butler 2+ Goals @ $2.80 (Sportsbet)

- 0.5u Dan Butler Most Goals @ $8.50 (Poinstbet)

Collingwood v Essendon

- Under is 4-0 between these two sides since 2018

o Average 144, Median 141.5. 80% = 115.2, 113.2

- Under is 22-4 in night games played in winter at the MCG since 2015

o Average 141 (112.8), Median 139.5 (111.6)

- Expecting some rain in this one, also.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 116.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)

Storm v Roosters

- Storm are 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS against the Roosters since 2017

- Under is 5-2 when these two play since 2017

o Average 29.86, Median 27

- 6 of the last 7 games between these two clubs have been decided by 8 points or less

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Either Team by Under 10.5 @ $1.91 (Sportsbet)

Raiders v Dragons

- Raiders are 7-6 SU, 4-8-1 ATS at GIO Stadium since 2019

o 10 of the 13 games have been decided by 8 points or less

- Under is 5-2 in Raiders games this season

o Only 2 games have had more than 30 points

- Under is 5-2 in Dragons games this season

o Exceeded 38.5 just twice

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Under 39.5 @ $1.95 (Ladbrokes)

Eels v Cowboys

- Cowboys have conceded an average of 30.5 points in their last 6 interstate games

o 28, 42, 24, 16, 37, 36

- “Eels only team to score 20+” is 8-6 when favourites at Bankwest Stadium.

- Cowboys have given up the most tries to the Centre starting positions, in the league (9). Could be a big day for at least one of Michael Jennings and Waqa Blake.

Recommended Bets:

- 1 Unit - Eels 20+ only team to score 20+ @ $2.05 (TAB)

- 1 Unit – Michael Jennings Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.48 (TopSport)


AFL player prop

Marc Murphy Under – 1 CBA

Darcy Tucker most Freo CBA’s

Matthew Rowell – Under (Cam Guthrie?)

Ed Langdon over – Wings v Richmond

B Houli Over – Backs v Melbourne

West Coast v Sydney

- West Coast are 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS against Sydney since 2018

- Sydney are 5-10 SU, 10-5 ATS as underdogs since 2019

- Model play: Admittedly, our model seems to overrate the Swans year in, year out; but the model suggests that the Swans should be around even money.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Sydney +9.5 @ $2.00 (Ladbrokes)

Geelong v Gold Coast

- No Play, Lean Suns +20.5

- May have a player prop on gameday via @TheTrendBettor on Twitter

Brisbane v Port Adelaide

- Port Adelaide are 3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS against Brisbane since 2017

o Over is 3-2. Average 190, Median 197

- Brisbane are 8-4 SU, 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games

- Model play: Yes, Port have had an “easy” schedule, but the model suggests that they have been the best team this year, by far! Whilst take out last week’s demolition of Adelaide, the Lions are the 7th best team so far.

Recommended Bets:

- 2 Units – Port Adelaide +1.5 @ $2.00 (Ladbrokes)

- 1 Unit – Over 129.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne

- Dating all the way back to 2015, all 8 of the games between these two teams have been decided by 25 points or less. 6 by 16 or less.

- Under is 6-2 between these two sides, with highly volatile outcomes. 2 with 200+, and 2 with < 110.

Recommended Bet: 1.5 Units – Either Team by Under 19.5 @ $1.80 (Sportsbet/TAB)

Titans v Sharks (NRL)

- Titans have given the tied-most tries to the #2 starting position in the league (7)

- Sharks’ Winger (#2), Sione Katoa has scored the 2nd most tries in 2020 (8)

Recommended Bets:

- 1.5 Units – Sione Katoa Anytime Try Scorer @ $1.80 (Ladbrokes)

- 0.5 Units – Sione Katoa to score 2+ Tries @ $4.50 (Ladbrokes)

Odds are correct as of 15:45, 3rd of July 2020. Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly!


Adelaide v Fremantle

  • No trends here as these two clubs have new coaches

  • Model Play: Adelaide have dished out the three worst league-wide performances of the season in the last three weeks. The model suggests that they are a 33-point worse team than the Dockers.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Fremantle –9.5 @ $2 (Ladbrokes)

Melbourne v Richmond

No play here, may have a player prop or two up on Twitter on gameday.

GWS Giants v Hawthorn

No play.

Sea-Eagles v Knights

  • 6 of the 19 tries that Manly have conceded have been to the starting #2 position

  • Edrik Lee has scored the 8th most tries in the league this season

  • Lee has scored 5 tries in his 5 career games against the Sea-Eagles (scored in 4 games)

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Edrik Lee Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.30 (Ladbrokes)

Bulldogs v Rabbitohs

  • The Bulldogs have lost the 3rd most games by 1-12 since 2019 (10/30)

  • The Rabbitohs have won the tied-most games by 1-12 since 2019 (13/30)

  • 3 of the last 4 games between these two teams have been decided by 8 points or less

  • No team have conceded more tries to the FB/WING positions than the Bulldogs (6 to FB, 6 to #2, 6 to #5). Could be big days for Mitchell, Gagai and Johnston

  • Alex Johnston has scored 6 tries from 7 games this season, so far.

Recommended Bets:

- 0.5 Units – Souths by 1-12 @ $3.10 (Sportsbet/TAB)

- 1 Unit – Alex Johnston Anytime Try Scorer @ $2 (Ladbrokes)


Odds are correct as of 15:30, 4th of July 2020. Odds are subject to change. Gamble responsibly.

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