AFL - Lions vs Tigers

Brisbane v Richmond

  • Richmond’s winning streak against the Lions has been well documented, but the Lions broke that hoodoo, splitting 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS in 2020

  • Lions won by 15 in the QF

  • Richmond won by 41 in round 10

  • Richmond are 4-10 SU, 6-8 ATS in true away games since 2017

  • True away games defined as games played outside of Melbourne, against a team that is playing at their home ground. Games like Richmond vs Geelong at Metricon Stadium have been excluded

  • Average result = Loss by 15 points

  • Brisbane are 23-5 SU, 14-14 ATS at the GABBA since 2019

  • 18 of 23 wins by 1-39

  • Model says: Lions by 18, so no value whatsoever. But I reckon this is the perfect spot for a 1-39 win for the Lions.

-- Player Prop –

  • If you’ve read previous articles, you’d think that I’d be all over Hugh McCluggage tonight. I think he has a big game, but his number of 113.5 is very very chalky. If I had a gun to my head, I probably say he goes over it, but I think it’s too high for me to bet. No prop for me tonight.

Recommended Bet: 1 Unit – Brisbane 1-39 @ $2 (Sportsbet)


Odds are correct as of 18:15 - Friday 21st of May 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.