AFL Grand Final - 2020

When the AFL announced the postponement of the home and away season due to COVID-19 in mid-March, most of us might’ve thought we’d never see the 2020 AFL Grand Final, but with very little further interruptions, thankfully, here we are!

I’m not going to give you a status-quo introduction of this highly anticipated Grand Final, so let’s just get right into it.


Head to Head / Line

  • Since 2017, Richmond are 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS against Geelong

  • Geelong are 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS at the Gabba this year

  • Average result = +53.2, Median result = +59

  • Richmond are 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS at the Gabba this year

  • Richmond are 9-2 SU, 9-2 ATS in finals since 2017

  • Average result = +27.64, Median result = +31

  • Model says: Geelong by 7.5

Total

  • Over is 4-1 in Geelong games at the Gabba this season

  • Average 136, Median 132

  • Geelong Team Total at the Gabba this season

  • Over 5-0

  • Average 94.6 Team Total

  • Geelong Opponent’s Team Total at the Gabba this season

  • Under 4-1

  • Average 41.4, Median 38

  • Under is 10-3 in games between these two sides since 2011

  • Average O/U = 165, Average Score = 152, Average +/- = -13

  • Under is 7-4 in Richmond finals since 2017

  • Average +/- = -5 points

  • Under is 8-3 in Grand Finals dating back to 2010

  • Under is 5-0 since 2015

  • Average +/- = -11 points

Staying away from the totals. Lean to the Under, but not with any confidence.


Player Props / Norm Smith

For those who have followed me all season, know that I have love playing winger/back flank player props against Richmond. Lets have a look at some wingers / half backs / outside players against Richmond in the last month (vs season averages):


Preliminary Final v Port Adelaide:

- Connor Rozee 81 DT (52.1)

- Xavier Duursma 79 DT (56.5)


Semi Final v St Kilda:

- Nick Coffield 77 DT (63.1)

- Jack Billings 72 (73.1)


Qualifying Final v Brisbane

- Daniel Rich 103 (69.9)

- Hugh McCluggage 80 (74.3)


The 3 players who fit the mould for Geelong, in my opinion, are Tom Stewart, Mitch Duncan, and Sam Menegola.


Tom Stewart, despite Geelong losing to Richmond by 26 points in Round 17, was one of Geelong’s best, collectin 25 touches, 8 marks, and 1 AFLCA vote. If Geelong are to win this game, they’ll be needing his drive off Half-Back.


Mitch Duncan, has really stepped up his game come finals time, and he’s truly apart of Geelong’s integral core midfield. In the home and away season, Duncan attended 50%+ of centre bounce attendances in 2 of his 17 games. Duncan has attended 50%+ of centre bounces in all 3 of their finals games, scoring 98, 123, and 85 DT points, up from his 84.75 average in the home and away season. Averages the most uncontested possessions for Geelong in 2020.


Sam Menegola, purely plays on the wing/half forward for Cats – a position that Richmond are prone to conceding a bump of points. Menegola hasn’t had the greatest finals campaign (compared to his lofty standards), scoring 63 DT against Port Adelaide, 96 against Collingwood, and 77 against Brisbane. Menegola averages the 2nd most uncontested possess for Geelong. Port Adelaide and Brisbane concede the Tied-2nd least uncontested possessions (159) whereas Collingwood concede the 5th MOST (182). Richmond concede 180, so I expect a stat-line closer to the Collingwood game (96) than the Port or Brisbane game. Could be in for a big one here.


Dustin Martin / Shai Bolton / Shane Edwards (and Jayden Short). Okay, I’m keeping this really short and simple. If Richmond win this game, I’m mainly looking at Martin to take home the Norm, by process of elimination. Geelong concede the least possessions with 258 (next least is 278) and the least uncontested possessions with 148 (next least is 159), so I’m not expecting stat fill-ups from the Richmond players, especially from the likes of Bachar Houli or Jayden Short. Instead we should be looking at players who are capable of hitting the scoreboard. On top of Martin, we're also playing Bolton and Edwards as they fit the goal-kicking midfielder mould.


Recommended Bets:

Head to Head / Line:

- 1 Unit – Geelong +2.5 @ $1.91 (Sportsbet)

Fantasy Points:

- 1.5 Units – Tom Stewart Over 77.5 @ $1.90 (Ladbrokes)

- 1.5 Units – Mitch Duncan Over 86.5 @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)

- 1 Unit – Sam Menegola Over 78.5 @ $1.90 (Ladbrokes)

- 1.5 Units – Jayden Short Under 69.5 @ $1.85 (Topsport)

Norm Smith (+ Top 3 E/W)

- 0.25 Units – Tom Stewart @ $31 (Bet365) & $11 (Topsport)

- 0.25 Units – Mitch Duncan @ $17 (TopSport) & $5.50 (Topsport/TAB/Bet365)

- 0.25 Units – Sam Menegola @ $26 (Multiple) & $9 (Bet365)

- 0.5 Units – Dustin Martin @ $5 (TAB/Bet365/Pointsbet) & $1.95 (TAB/Bet365)

- 0.125 Units – Shai Bolton @ 23 (Bet365) & $7 (Bet365)

- 0.125 Units – Shane Edwards @ $26 (Bet365) & $11 (Topsport)


Thanks to reading and following The Trend Bettor through what has been a challenging, but yet another successful season. I hope I have helped you win some money and have provided some quality content throughout the year. Without your constant readership, and engagement on social media, I wouldn’t be doing this. so thank you!


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Enjoy the last game of footy for 2020, and stay safe!


P.s. Keep an eye out for the last SGM for the season, on Twitter tomorrow!


Odds are correct as of 23:10 – 23/10/2020. Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly!

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