AFL Finals Week 1 - Saturday
Sydney v GWS
- Sydney are 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS against GWS since 2019
- Over is 3-2 in these games
o 164 Median score
- Model says: Swans by 7 – no value
Over/Under stats in outdoor games since Round 10:
- Sydney average total points: 166.22
o Median: 170 points
- GWS average total points: 157.29
o Median: 162 points
Elimination Finals trends since 2011
- Over is 13-7
- Over is 8-1 in day games
o Average cover margin = +13.9 points
- Teams who finished higher are 10-10 SU, 10-10 ATS
o Every team who covered, won.
- Favourites are 10-10 SU, 10-10 ATS
Player Props:
- Whenever injuries occur, opportunities present themselves. Only 6 Swans' players have had multiple games of attending 50+% of Centre Bounce Attendances (CBA's): Parker, Mills, Kennedy, Rowbottom, Warner, and Hewett. With Mills and Kennedy out, the other 4 should see bulk midfield minutes.
- The market recognises Parker (who will probably get a job done on him), and Hewett to get 20+ disposals, but that’s about as far as it goes. I’m focussing more on Warner (20+ in 4 from 12 games) whereas Rowbottom is 3 from 16.
- Chad Warner attended 50+% of CBA's in rounds 2-7. Here are Warner’s possessions in these games: 20, 20, 23, 13, 23, 14
Recommended Bets:
- 1.5 Units – Over 154.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)
- 1.75 Units – Chad Warner 15+ Disposals @ $1.67 (Sportsbet)
- 1.25 Units – Chad Warner 20+ Disposals @ $4 (Sportsbet)
Melbourne v Brisbane
- Melbourne are 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS against top 8 sides in 2021
o Average result = +13.5 points
o All wins were by 1-39
- Brisbane are 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS against top 8 sides in 2021
o 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS away from the Gabba
o -1, 19, -22 in these games
- Model says: Melbourne by 9
Qualifying Final trends since 2011
- Over is 5-15
o Average Over/Under Margin = -10.9
- Teams who finished higher on the ladder are 14-6 SU, 11-9 ATS
- Favourites are 13-7 SU, 10-10 ATS
- Teams with true home ground advantage are 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS
Recommended Bet: 1.25 Units – Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.20 (Sportsbet)
Odds are correct as of 08:35 - Saturday 28th August 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change.