AFL Finals Week 1 - Saturday

Sydney v GWS

- Sydney are 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS against GWS since 2019

- Over is 3-2 in these games

o 164 Median score

- Model says: Swans by 7 – no value

Over/Under stats in outdoor games since Round 10:

- Sydney average total points: 166.22

o Median: 170 points

- GWS average total points: 157.29

o Median: 162 points


Elimination Finals trends since 2011

- Over is 13-7

- Over is 8-1 in day games

o Average cover margin = +13.9 points

- Teams who finished higher are 10-10 SU, 10-10 ATS

o Every team who covered, won.

- Favourites are 10-10 SU, 10-10 ATS


Player Props:

- Whenever injuries occur, opportunities present themselves. Only 6 Swans' players have had multiple games of attending 50+% of Centre Bounce Attendances (CBA's): Parker, Mills, Kennedy, Rowbottom, Warner, and Hewett. With Mills and Kennedy out, the other 4 should see bulk midfield minutes.

- The market recognises Parker (who will probably get a job done on him), and Hewett to get 20+ disposals, but that’s about as far as it goes. I’m focussing more on Warner (20+ in 4 from 12 games) whereas Rowbottom is 3 from 16.

- Chad Warner attended 50+% of CBA's in rounds 2-7. Here are Warner’s possessions in these games: 20, 20, 23, 13, 23, 14


Recommended Bets:

- 1.5 Units – Over 154.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)

- 1.75 Units – Chad Warner 15+ Disposals @ $1.67 (Sportsbet)

- 1.25 Units – Chad Warner 20+ Disposals @ $4 (Sportsbet)


Melbourne v Brisbane

- Melbourne are 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS against top 8 sides in 2021

o Average result = +13.5 points

o All wins were by 1-39

- Brisbane are 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS against top 8 sides in 2021

o 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS away from the Gabba

o -1, 19, -22 in these games

- Model says: Melbourne by 9


Qualifying Final trends since 2011

- Over is 5-15

o Average Over/Under Margin = -10.9

- Teams who finished higher on the ladder are 14-6 SU, 11-9 ATS

- Favourites are 13-7 SU, 10-10 ATS

- Teams with true home ground advantage are 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS


Recommended Bet: 1.25 Units – Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.20 (Sportsbet)


Odds are correct as of 08:35 - Saturday 28th August 2021 (AEST). Odds are subject to change.